——10月金融数据点评：社融和存款的变化预示什么？

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In October 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 815 billion, a decrease from the previous value of 3.53 trillion[2] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.5%, down from 8.7%[2] - M2 year-on-year growth was 8.2%, a decline from 8.4%[2] - New M1 year-on-year growth was 6.2%, down from 7.2%[2] Group 2: Key Insights - The continuous decrease in corporate medium to long-term loans for four months indicates a potential improvement in supply-demand balance[4] - The decline in household loans over the same period is more closely related to operational loans rather than consumer loans, which still show growth compared to 2024[4] - The significant increase in entrusted loans in October may be linked to the deployment of policy financial tools, although the impact on policy banks' balance sheets appears limited[4] - Direct financing through corporate bonds and domestic stock financing has shown consistent year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend for high-tech and innovative enterprises[4] Group 3: Deposit Trends - Non-bank financial institution deposits increased by 770 billion year-on-year, suggesting stability in equity market transaction volumes[5] - The new M1's year-on-year decline is attributed to seasonal factors, with a notable drop from September's high growth[5] - The old M1 is expected to show a year-on-year decline, potentially dropping from 6.2% in September to around 3.4% by year-end, still above the -1.4% expected for the end of 2024[5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Economic cycle indicators have shown a shift from the upward trend observed in the first eight months of the year, with September and October maintaining a fluctuating trend[6] - The change in the enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference indicates a potential slowdown in economic activity, which could impact future corporate profits[6]