从股债失联到股债同源

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability of "stocks and bonds sharing the same origin" is increasing, and they are likely to be in sync with the nominal growth rate [22][34]. - The focus of the "same origin" lies in price elasticity and the impact of price changes on the stock and bond markets, with policy and market attention centered on demand - led non - food prices [38][47]. - The "anti - involution" policy is an important arrangement in the future, with clear long - term and short - term goals and implementation paths [60][61]. Summary by Directory "Stock - Bond Disconnection" - After "9.24" in 2024, both stocks and bonds were bullish under the stimulus of loose monetary policy. In 2025, there was a slight "seesaw" pattern between stocks and bonds, with stocks strong and bonds weak. The median return of a certain scale of interest - rate bond public funds was around 0.2%, and the stock index rose nearly 800 points while the interest rate only increased by 20 points [7][8]. - The reason for the "stock - bond disconnection" is that they have different driving factors. In 2025, the bond market's main line was the revision and adjustment of expectations, including policy and economic expectations [9][11][12]. Increasing Probability of "Stock - Bond Homology" - A stock bull market requires both PE and EPS. Currently, it seems to be in a period where EPS needs to take over. When the stock market focuses on EPS, the probability of stock - bond homology increases [22]. - In the past year or so, the main factor determining the rise and fall of long - term interest rates has been the term premium. Currently, the term premium is at a reasonable level, and the long - term interest rate center's rise and fall will return to fundamental factors such as growth or prices [32]. - When the stock index returns to EPS and the bond market level matches the current policy and fundamentals, the probability of stock - bond homology increases, and they are homologous to the nominal growth rate [34]. Focus of "Homology" - In terms of the 2035 goals, the real growth has limited elasticity, while prices still have elasticity. Industry profit changes are closely related to prices, which are crucial for the stock market, and whether to get out of deflation is crucial for the bond market [38]. - Policy and the market pay more attention to demand - led prices, especially non - food prices or core CPI. When food and non - food prices move in the same direction, the situation is clear; when they move in opposite directions, in - depth structural analysis is needed [47]. - Under neutral assumptions, there is a chance to get out of deflation, but the risk lies in whether the month - on - month can reach the neutral level of recent years. The trend is determined, and it is unlikely to return to the 2024 situation [50][51]. - The "anti - involution" policy is very important. In the short term, the implementation path is still under observation, while in the long term, the goals and implementation paths are clear. International experiences from the US and Japan can be used for reference, and in the short term, administrative production control may be used to improve industry profit margins [60][61][66].