印度取消BIS认证叠加“反内卷”，PTA行业有望迎来向上拐点

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [6] Core Viewpoints - The PTA industry is expected to reach an upward turning point due to the cancellation of BIS certification in India and ongoing "anti-involution" measures [1][3] - The expansion of PTA capacity is nearing its end, with a significant slowdown in new capacity additions anticipated in the coming years [2] - The cancellation of BIS certification by India is expected to boost PTA demand, potentially restoring export levels to those seen in the first half of 2023 [3] - The supply-demand dynamics for PTA are improving, with price elasticity indicating significant potential for price rebounds [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The PTA industry has been experiencing prolonged low profitability, prompting strong calls for improvement from enterprises [1] - The industry structure is highly concentrated, with the top six companies holding a 77% market share, providing a solid foundation for self-discipline [1] Capacity Expansion - In 2025, three new PTA production facilities were launched, totaling 1.9 million tons, with no further expansions planned for the year [2] - Future PTA capacity growth is projected to slow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 2.8% over the next three years, compared to 12.5% from 2019 to 2025 [2] Demand Drivers - The Indian government's removal of BIS certification requirements is expected to significantly increase PTA demand, with potential recovery in exports to India [3] - If exports return to previous levels, the demand increase could amount to approximately 125.4 million tons, representing about 2% of China's total PTA demand in 2024 [3] Price Outlook - The PTA supply-demand situation is improving, and prices are expected to rebound, with current prices at 4,550 yuan/ton, which is 71% lower than the peak price of 7,770 yuan/ton [4]