【SH周报】烧碱供需格局变动有限，短期维持窄幅震荡-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. The price center of caustic soda is expected to decline in the later stage. The current and expected supply - demand patterns contrast significantly. The upstream has production and inventory strategies. Demand is weakening, and as winter approaches, the upstream's active de - stocking pressure may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - Different market participants are recommended different hedging strategies. For example, producers can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can sell put options and buy call options for procurement and inventory management; end - customers can buy call options to prevent price increases when purchasing and buy put options to protect inventory value [2]. - Key data to monitor include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance status of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in caustic soda factory inventories [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/dry ton) at the weekend. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a suppressing effect on the market [11]. 2. Price Difference 2.1 Model Price Difference - The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends. The data showed fluctuations over time [29]. 2.2 Regional Price Difference - The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions (such as Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong) were presented, and the data updated daily [29][33][39]. 3. Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. There were fewer maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week, and the overall supply increased [40]. - The operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda were presented with weekly data. Some chlor - alkali enterprises had maintenance, resumption, or planned maintenance, which affected the production volume. For example, some enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, etc. had maintenance or resumed production, and some enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong had planned maintenance [41][45][48]. 4. Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply of alumina decreased slightly this week due to maintenance in Guangxi and Shanxi. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 118 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025, was 89.50%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories was polarized, with large - scale factories maintaining over 60% and small - and medium - sized factories generally dropping to around 50%. Orders were insufficient [55]. 5. Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory of some factories increased [74]. 6. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market price remained stable this week, and the thermal coal market price increased slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market weakened compared to last week [78][79]. 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - Information on the prices, capacity utilization rates, and production profits of PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin was presented, including their historical data and update frequencies [87][96].