Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-11-14 07:21Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The growth of social financing (社融) has slowed down, with October's new social financing amounting to 814.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 597.1 billion yuan. The total social financing stock increased by 8.49% year-on-year, with a slight month-on-month decline of 0.18 percentage points [3]. - Demand for loans remains weak, with a notable decrease in both household and corporate financing needs. In October, the balance of RMB loans grew by 6.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" continues, as M1 and M2 growth rates have declined. In October, M1 and M2 increased by 6.2% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively, with month-on-month declines of 1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage points [3]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In October, the new social financing was 814.9 billion yuan, down 597.1 billion yuan year-on-year. The government bond issuance has weakened its support for social financing [3]. - RMB loans decreased by 20.1 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year reduction of 316.6 billion yuan. The issuance of new government bonds was 489.3 billion yuan, down 560.2 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. Loan Demand - The demand for loans from the real economy remains weak, with household loans decreasing by 360.4 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year drop of 520.4 billion yuan. Corporate loans increased by 350 billion yuan, primarily driven by a significant rise in bill financing [3]. Deposit Trends - The total RMB deposits in financial institutions increased by 610 billion yuan in October, a year-on-year increase of 100 billion yuan. However, household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, indicating ongoing deposit migration [3]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a shift in capital towards more active markets [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the weakening support from government bonds for social financing and the ongoing weak loan demand necessitate attention to the effectiveness of new policy financial tools. The banking sector's transformation driven by the 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide opportunities for fundamental recovery [3]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), Hangzhou Bank (600926), and China Merchants Bank (600036) [3].