普林格与盈利周期跟踪：社融脉冲回落

Summary of Key Points Core Insights - Identifying performance turning points is crucial for the market to exit the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically leading performance turning points by 1-2 quarters [4] - The Plinger synchronous indicators are essential but should be assessed alongside leading indicators for better economic bottom predictions [4] - The key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with residential medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [4] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of decline, with the manufacturing PMI falling to 49% in October, indicating a contraction [6][22] - The social financing scale increased by 815 billion yuan in October, which is 597 billion yuan less than the same period last year, reflecting a decrease in new government bonds and a narrowing of new RMB loans [5][12] - M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rates fell to 6.2% and 8.2%, respectively, indicating a decline in liquidity [9][12] Leading Indicators - The decline in M1, M2, and social financing stock suggests a weakening economic outlook, with M1 showing a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, down from 7.2% [9] - The residential medium and long-term loans turned negative in October, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.34%, compared to a previous growth of 2.51% [15] - The DR007 average rate marginally decreased to 1.4579% in October, indicating a potential easing of liquidity conditions [18][19] Market Dynamics - The current market is in a data vacuum and policy negotiation period, with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference expected to influence market sentiment [22] - The Plinger cycle's leading indicators are declining, while synchronous and lagging indicators continue to rise, suggesting mixed signals in the economic recovery [23]