Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][17]. Core Insights - The company achieved a net revenue of 23.052 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit decreased by 36.1% to 747 million yuan, primarily due to a decline in the proportion of high-margin businesses and a reduction in non-operating income [5][13]. - The company continues to optimize operational efficiency, with a total GTV of 736.7 billion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year. Cost rigidity has impacted profit margins, leading to a 1.3 percentage point decline in overall gross margin to 21.4% [13][17]. - The "two wings" business segments, home decoration and rental services, showed significant improvement, with rental income increasing by 45.3% year-on-year to 5.727 billion yuan, achieving profitability at the city level [5][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the existing home GTV was 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year, but net income decreased by 3.6% to 5.991 billion yuan due to a higher proportion of GTV from agents [14]. - The new home GTV was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year, with net income declining by 14.1% to 6.639 billion yuan, reflecting a similar trend to the national residential sales decline [15]. - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 6.083 billion, 7.146 billion, and 8.095 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23x, 20x, and 17x [17]. Business Segments - Home decoration and rental services both achieved city-level profitability, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, and rental services revenue at 5.727 billion yuan, up 45.3% year-on-year [16]. - The contribution margin for home decoration improved by 0.8 percentage points, while rental services saw a 4.3 percentage point increase in contribution margin [16]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 94.665 billion, 92.631 billion, and 96.035 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.3%, -2.1%, and 3.7% respectively [18]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline by 15.5% in 2025, followed by increases of 17.5% and 13.3% in 2026 and 2027 [17][18].
贝壳-W（02423）：营收稳健效率优化，家装租赁盈利改善