宏观数据观察：东海观察10月经济增速继续放缓且低于预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In October, China's economic growth continued to slow down and was lower than expected. The overall domestic demand economic data in October continued to slow down, with the decline in investment continuing to widen and falling short of market expectations, the consumption growth rate continuing to decline but slightly higher than market expectations, and industrial production significantly slowing down in the short term. The short - term investment side continued to slow down. The real estate market continued to slow down and bottom out, infrastructure investment continued to slow down, and manufacturing investment also faced challenges. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, the prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Production - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.9%, with an expected 5.5% and a previous value of 6.5%, a significant decline from the previous value and far lower than market expectations. This was mainly due to holiday factors and the slowdown in external demand orders, which led to a slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. Among the three major categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 4.5% year - on - year, the manufacturing industry by 4.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 5.4%. High - end manufacturing such as the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing, and computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries still had relatively fast growth rates. In the fourth quarter, with the gradual weakening of the US replenishment demand, the overall growth rate of domestic industrial production might decline but was expected to remain at a relatively high level [3][4]. 3.2 Consumption - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 2.9%, with an expected 2.7% and a previous value of 3.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous value but slightly higher than market expectations. The slowdown was due to the withdrawal of the consumer goods trade - in policy, the high base of categories such as automobiles, and weak holiday consumption. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods further slowed down under the influence of the trade - in policy withdrawal. The retail sales of consumer goods such as household appliances, furniture, automobiles, and communication equipment showed significant slowdowns, while service - related consumption growth accelerated with policy support. In the short term, the growth rate of commodity consumption was expected to continue to decline, but in the later stage, with the implementation of service consumption stimulus policies and the recovery of residents' wealth effect, domestic consumption would continue to recover [4]. 3.3 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7%, with an expected - 0.8% and a previous value of - 0.5%, and the decline widened by 1.2% and was far lower than expected. The decline rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all further widened [3][4]. - Real Estate: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 23.2%, with a 1.9 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous month. The year - on - year growth rates of the floor area of commercial housing sold and sales volume were - 19.6% and - 25.1% respectively, with significant increases in the decline rates from the previous values. This was mainly due to the high - base effect of the "9.24 real estate new policy" last year and the mild real estate stimulus policies this year. The real estate market continued to adjust and bottom out, with the transaction activity in the housing market decreasing, and the investment side remaining weak. The year - on - year growth rate of real estate development funds in October was - 21.4%, with a 10.4 - percentage - point increase in the decline. The floor area of newly started construction, construction, and completion of real estate all faced challenges [4]. - Infrastructure: In October, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was - 8.9%, with a 4.3 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. Considering the continuous decline after the end of the photovoltaic rush - to - install market and the constraints of local debt resolution on project reserves and funds for traditional infrastructure, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline [4][5]. - Manufacturing: The year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment in October was - 6.7%, with a 4.8 - percentage - point increase in the decline from the previous value. It continued to slow down due to the high - base effect last year and the decline in investment willingness caused by "anti - involution". High - tech industries maintained a high level of prosperity, but factors such as tariff uncertainty, the marginal decline in policy funds for large - scale equipment renewal and transformation, and the slowdown in US replenishment demand in the fourth quarter affected manufacturing investment. However, with the support of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments and the implementation of relevant policies, there might be some support for manufacturing investment in the future [4][5]. 3.4 Impact on Commodities - On the demand side, the short - term investment side continued to slow down, and domestic commodity demand as a whole slowed down and was lower than market expectations. On the supply side, industrial production slowed down due to factors such as the decline in foreign demand orders and the slowdown in the increase of industrial enterprise operating rates. The short - term domestic commodity supply - demand side showed weak demand and relatively abundant supply. The "anti - involution" policy had a certain supporting effect on the prices of domestic demand - type commodities. The released data was significantly lower than market expectations, which was short - term negative for the domestic demand - type commodity market. In the medium - to - long term, the "anti - involution" work entering the substantial promotion stage was positive for the recovery of the domestic market. Overseas, due to the overall easing of US trade policies, the impact on the economy weakened, but the short - term government shutdown affected the economy. The prices of external demand - type commodities such as non - ferrous metals and energy oscillated and showed significant differentiation, and the support for precious metals increased due to the resurgence of safe - haven demand [3][5].