房地产及建材行业双周报（2025、10、31-2025、11、13）：房地产基本面仍处于“磨底”阶段-20251114

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [2][4]. Core Views - The real estate sector is currently in a "bottoming" phase, with new home and second-hand home transaction areas still showing negative year-on-year growth, although the decline is narrowing compared to 2024. New construction starts and development investments continue to decline, and funding is tight, indicating an ongoing deleveraging cycle. The overall loss level of the industry has further expanded compared to the second quarter, suggesting that the fundamentals remain weak. Future policy support and stabilization of the industry are expected to drive market trends [4][28]. - The building materials sector, particularly cement, is benefiting from a dual advantage of cost and policy due to the elimination of high-energy, low-efficiency capacities. The sector is expected to see stable support from urban village renovations and the acceleration of affordable housing construction. Current valuations are at historical lows, making certain stocks attractive for defensive and long-term investment [4][50]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Sector - As of November 13, 2025, the Shenwan Real Estate Index has increased by 2.07% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.32 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has risen by 11.37% [13][17]. - The report highlights that the industry is transitioning from a high-leverage, high-turnover model to one focused on quality, service, and sustainability, with urban renewal expected to unlock potential in existing stock [4][28]. Building Materials Sector - The Shenwan Building Materials Index has risen by 2.63% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.3 percentage points, ranking 17th among 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 23.38% [29][32]. - The cement industry is expected to see a significant increase in profitability due to the implementation of carbon trading regulations and the elimination of inefficient capacities. The sector is supported by ongoing construction projects and a favorable valuation environment [4][50]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, such as Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and Binhai Group (002244) in the real estate sector, and Conch Cement (600585) and Huaxin Cement (600801) in the building materials sector [4][53].