白糖周报：广西推迟开榨，郑糖偏强运行-20251114

Report Title - "Guangxi Delays Sugar Cane Crushing, Zhengzhou Sugar Futures Trade Strongly - Guoxin Futures Weekly Sugar Report" [2] Report Date - November 14, 2025 [2] 1. Sugar Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures prices had a slight weekly increase of 0.24%, while ICE sugar futures continued to stop falling and stabilize, with a weekly increase of 1.53% [11] Spot Price and Basis Trends - Not provided with specific summary content, only data sources mentioned [15][16] Sales in Guangxi and Yunnan - Not provided with specific summary content, only data sources mentioned [20][21] Sugar Imports - In September, sugar imports were 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. Based on the ICE March sugar contract price of 14.5 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 4,019 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,090 yuan per ton; from Thailand, the in - quota import cost was 4,078 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 5,166 yuan per ton [25] Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory in September was about 682,000 tons, an increase of 324,800 tons compared to the same period last year [28] ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 8,904, a decrease of 104 compared to the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 7,721, and the valid forecasts were 1,183 [36] Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of October, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 525 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [40] Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 52.36%, compared to 48.74% in the same period last year [45] Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - In October, Brazil's sugar exports were 4.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [49] International Main - producing Region Weather Conditions - In Brazil, the main producing areas had abundant rainfall, which was unfavorable for sugar - cane crushing. In India, there was little change in precipitation [55][56] 2. Market Outlook Domestic Market - In terms of the crushing schedule, no sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing. Sugar - making enterprises in Guangxi agreed not to start production before November 30, 2025. Currently, the pre - sale quotes of enterprises have been lowered to the level of the 2601 contract, and the consumption situation is not optimistic. However, due to the further digestion of old sugar, most sugar groups in Guangxi have cleared their inventories, and the delay of new - sugar listing has increased the market's upward expectations. But from the futures price chart, the resistance around 5,500 yuan per ton for Zhengzhou sugar is effective. Although the futures price briefly broke through the 5,500 - yuan mark with increased trading volume and open interest in the later part of the week, it then reduced open interest and failed to stay above this level. With sufficient overall domestic supply, it is difficult for Zhengzhou sugar to break out of the recent trading range, and attention should be paid to import data [59] International Market - ICE sugar futures prices have stopped falling and stabilized around 14 cents per pound, with short - covering at low prices. In terms of consumption, the market is relatively optimistic about low - price purchases, and there are also signs of Chinese purchases. In terms of global supply and demand, recent institutions have slightly lowered their production forecasts for India and Brazil, reducing the estimated supply surplus for the 2025/26 season, which has provided some support for sugar prices. International sugar prices are bottom - fishing in the short term [59] Operation Suggestion - Mainly conduct short - term trading [60]