国信期货生猪周报：生猪震荡运行，关注后期消费表现-20251114

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In the past week, the live - hog market showed a pattern of being strong first and then weak. The futures market had a structure where near - term contracts were weak and far - term contracts were strong, the basis weakened slightly, and the forward structure of the futures curve became steeper. From the number of piglet births, the domestic live - hog slaughter pressure will be realized from now to the second quarter of the next year, with the theoretical slaughter volume generally increasing in the later stage. [7] - In the short term, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms is a bit slow and is expected to speed up in the second half of November. Small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell and are holding back their pigs. [7] - The demand is gradually picking up, and it's time to observe whether consumption can effectively absorb the supply. Considering the high frozen - meat inventory and low spread between live - hog and pork prices, it's difficult for the peak consumption season alone to support the rise of live - hog spot prices. [7] - For the future market trend, attention should be paid to the realization of consumption and the time point of inventory reduction of live hogs. In the long term, focus on the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. [7] - In terms of operation, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for LH2601 and LH2603 contracts. Treat the LH2609 contract in the far - month as a wide - range shock and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying. [7] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Analysis and Outlook - The live - hog market had a first - strong - then - weak pattern last week. Futures showed near - weak and far - strong, with a slightly weaker basis and a steeper forward curve. The slaughter pressure will be high from now to the second quarter of next year. In the short term, large - scale farms' slaughter may speed up, and small - scale farmers are holding back pigs. Consumption is picking up, but it's hard for it alone to support price increases. Pay attention to consumption and inventory reduction, and the industry's capacity - reduction rhythm. Adopt different trading strategies for different contracts. [7] 67. Central Reserve Frozen - Pork Operation - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, no temporary reserve purchase is initiated when a third - level early warning is issued; it may be initiated when a second - level warning is issued; and it is initiated when a first - level warning is issued. Local governments follow the national practice. [67] - In case of excessive price increases, in the normal market cycle, reserve release is initiated when a second - level early warning is issued and the release is increased when a first - level warning is issued. In case of special situations like major animal diseases, after a first - level warning, releases are concentrated in key periods. Provinces can set their own release conditions but not higher than the central level. [67]