Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:29Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The inventory of ferromanganese silicon is rising faster, and the subsequent production pressure is expected to increase. The leading manganese-based enterprises plan to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry by 40%, but the supply did not decline from August to September and decreased slightly in October. On the demand side, the national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue in 2025, and the subsequent crude steel production will continue to decline. Coke profits have little room for significant improvement, and alloys are likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the weekly chart [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Macro: Hunan Yueyang Pingjiang County introduced new regulations to become the first county in Hunan to fully implement the spot - housing sales system. The central bank's RMB loan balance has reached 27 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock has reached 43.7 trillion yuan. In October, residents' confidence in buying houses continued to decline, and they continued to adopt a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - Overseas: Trump warned that if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs, the US will face an "economic disaster" [6]. - Supply and Demand: Inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks. On the cost side, the port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 83,000 tons, and on the demand side, hot metal production has declined seasonally. In terms of profits, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 170 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 330 yuan/ton. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the main ferromanganese silicon contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy: It is expected that the main contract of ferromanganese silicon will fluctuate in the range of 5,700 - 5,900 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of November 14, the position of the ferromanganese silicon futures contract is 604,600 lots, an increase of 35,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread is 60, an increase of 6 points. The number of ferromanganese silicon warehouse receipts is 19,863, an increase of 5,505. The spread between the January contracts of ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon is 258, an increase of 24 points [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of November 14, the spot price of ferromanganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis is - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 points [24]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. The daily average output is 28,510 tons, a decrease of 330 tons. The weekly demand for ferromanganese silicon in five major steel types is 118,589 tons, a decrease of 2.08% from the previous week, and the weekly supply of national ferromanganese silicon is 199,570 tons, a decrease of 1.14% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese silicon enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, with a total inventory of 346,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons [28][32]. - Upstream: As of November 12, the price of South African manganese ore and Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port remained unchanged. As of November 10, the electricity price in Ningxia remained unchanged, and in Inner Mongolia it decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh. As of November 7, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.397 million tons, an increase of 1.92%. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore this week is 516,800 tons, an increase of 16% from the previous week, Australian manganese ore is 67,300 tons, an increase of 100%, Gabonese manganese ore is 70,000 tons, an increase of 100%, and Ghanaian manganese ore is 0 tons, a decrease of 100%. As of November 13, the spot production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.16%, and in Ningxia it increased by 0.25%. The spot profit in the northern region increased by 13.09% [39][45][49]. - Downstream: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from the previous week and 9,400 tons from the same period last year. The final price of ferromanganese silicon set by HBIS Group in November is 5,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].