Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:28Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded. However, the inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market stopped falling and rose, with the spot price ranging from 9,900 - 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened as the price of raw material butadiene rebounded [6]. - Market Outlook: Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted, increasing domestic production. The inventory of producers increased slightly, and that of traders increased significantly this week. Next week, producer inventory is expected to rise, and trader inventory is expected to decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to decline further [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,200 - 10,700 yuan in the short - term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract rose 2.5% this week [10]. - As of November 14, the 1 - 2 spread of butadiene rubber was 5 [17]. - As of November 14, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipt was 2,980 tons, a decrease of 10 tons from last week [20]. - Spot Market - As of November 13, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,480 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from last week [25]. - As of November 13, the basis of butadiene rubber was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of November 13, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 569.13 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - As of November 14, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 73.02%, an increase of 3.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 29,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from last week [32]. - Industry - In October 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 137,600 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons from the previous month [35]. - As of November 13, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.92%, an increase of 3.9% from last week [35]. - As of November 13, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production profit was 636 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of November 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber social inventory was 30,820 tons, an increase of 1,530 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons from last week [42]. - Downstream - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.74 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.04 percentage points [45]. - In September 2025, China's tire export volume was 687,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 105,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%. From January to September, China's cumulative tire export volume was 6.3908 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.88% [48]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.