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股指期货周报-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices and four stock - index futures all declined this week, with Kechuang 50 and ChiNext Index falling over 3%. Market trading activity slightly rebounded compared to last week. The economic fundamentals were weak in October, with significant declines in domestic import/export, fixed - asset investment, social retail, and industrial added value. However, the overall performance of A - share third - quarter reports was good, providing bottom support. After the disclosure of A - share third - quarter reports and macro - economic data, the market will enter a vacuum period for macro data, performance, and policies next week, and the stock - index futures are expected to fluctuate [5][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - Futures (IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512) and spot indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) all showed declines. For example, IF2512 had a weekly decline of 1.27% and a Friday decline of 1.56%, closing at 4600.4; CSI 300 had a weekly decline of 1.08% and a Friday decline of 1.57%, closing at 4628.14 [8]. 3.2消息面概览 (Overview of News) - In October, CPI and PPI showed certain changes, with CPI rising both month - on - month and year - on - year, and PPI rising month - on - month. Financial data showed that the growth rate of M1 declined more than that of M2, ending the continuous five - month upward trend of the M1 - M2 spread. Industrial added value, social retail, and fixed - asset investment all declined compared to the previous values, and the real estate market continued to decline [11]. 3.3周度市场数据 (Weekly Market Data) - Domestic Main Indices: Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Kechuang 50, SME 100, and ChiNext Index all declined, with Kechuang 50 and ChiNext Index having relatively large declines [15]. - External Main Indices (as of Thursday): S&P 500, FTSE 100, Hang Seng Index, and Nikkei 225 showed different trends, with some rising and some having declines on Thursday [16]. - Industry Sector Performance: Most industry sectors rose, with the comprehensive sector strengthening significantly and the communication and electronics sectors weakening. Industry main - force funds were generally in net outflow, with large net outflows in the electronics and computer sectors [20][23]. - SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rates: SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, and the capital price was at a relatively low level [28]. - Other Data: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 9.273 billion yuan in the secondary market, the restricted - share lifting market value was 30.017 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of north - bound funds was 918.491 billion yuan. The basis of IF and IH main contracts weakened slightly, while the basis of IC and IM main contracts fluctuated [31][39][42]. 3.4行情展望与策略 (Market Outlook and Strategy) - A - share major indices and four stock - index futures all declined this week. The economic fundamentals were weak in October, but the A - share third - quarter reports provided bottom support. Next week, due to the lack of clear trading guidance, the market is expected to fluctuate randomly, and the stock - index futures will maintain a volatile trend [90].