Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-14 09:23Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Lin Jingyi [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the port methanol market showed weak fluctuations, while the inland methanol market stopped falling and rose slightly. The price increase was limited due to the continuous back - flow of port goods and the cautious attitude of the market. In the near future, the overall domestic methanol production has decreased. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has declined, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has continued to decline and is expected to remain stable next week. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The port methanol market was weakly volatile this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2040 - 2110 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2120 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices stopped falling and rose slightly, with the price in Ordos North Line ranging from 2060 - 2090 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2185 - 2190 yuan/ton. The price increase was limited due to the back - flow of port goods [7] - Market Outlook: The domestic methanol production has decreased as the loss of production capacity from maintenance and production cuts exceeds the output from capacity recovery. The inventory of upstream and mid - stream enterprises has decreased, while the port inventory has accumulated. The olefin industry's operating rate has declined and is expected to remain stable next week [7] - Strategy Recommendation: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 2.7% [11] - Inter - delivery Spread: As of November 14, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 108 [13] - Position Analysis: As of November 13, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 11,709, an increase of 795 compared with last week [22] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Spot Price: As of November 13, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2077.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1992.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.5 yuan/ton from last week [26] - Foreign Spot Price: As of November 13, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 242 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 80 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar/ton from last week [31] - Basis: As of November 13, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was - 25.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from last week [35] 3.4 Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of November 12, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 13, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.59 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39] - Industry: As of November 13, China's methanol production was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous week. As of November 12, the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 245,400 tons, an increase of 24,300 tons from the previous period. The total port inventory of methanol was 1.5436 million tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous data. In September 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4269 million tons, a decrease of 18.92% from the previous month; from January to September 2025, the cumulative imports were 9.6667 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.94%. As of November 13, the methanol import profit was - 16.96 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.39 yuan/ton from last week [42][47][50] - Downstream: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.27% from the previous week. As of November 14, the domestic methanol - to - olefin paper profit was - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 181 yuan/ton from last week [53][56]