集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20251114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate lacks support due to the weak export performance in October, although there are signs of improvement in the trade - war situation and a potential turning point in geopolitical conflicts. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may recover. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to experience more significant fluctuations. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [9][43] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The prices of container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2602 rose 1.12%, while the far - month contracts had declines ranging from - 1% to - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1504.8, up 296.09 points from last week, a 24.5% increase, which is expected to support the recovery of near - month freight rates. The trading of the EC2512 contract became more active as its trading volume and open interest increased [8][12][18] 2. News Review and Analysis - The US suspension of the export control penetration rule for one year is a positive move. The end of the US federal government shutdown has a neutral - to - positive impact, but the IMF predicts a lower GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter due to the shutdown. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rates, with some concerned about high inflation and others calling for rate cuts. China and the US have taken reciprocal measures in trade, which is generally positive [21] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts has shrunk, and the spread has widened. The export container freight rate index has rebounded rapidly. Global container shipping capacity is growing, and European Line capacity is recovering. The BDI and BPI have declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships is fluctuating at a high level, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar has narrowed [26][32][34] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices showed mixed performance this week. The main contract EC2602 rose, while far - month contracts declined. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid, and the price increase in November has mostly failed. The Middle East situation has postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. The eurozone economy is expected to continue to improve. Overall, the trade situation improvement has not yet affected trade, and investors should be cautious [42][43]