10月金融数据点评：存款搬家延续，债市进入等待期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a continuation of deposit migration, with the bond market entering a waiting period as financial data for October shows a decline in social financing growth and weaker credit demand from the real economy [1][2][6] - In October 2025, new RMB loans amounted to 0.22 trillion yuan, a decrease from 0.50 trillion yuan in October 2024, while new social financing was 0.815 trillion yuan compared to 1.41 trillion yuan in the previous year [1][2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 8.5%, slightly down from 8.7% in September 2025, and M2 growth was 8.2%, down from 8.4% in the previous month [1][2] Group 2 - The decline in social financing growth is attributed to weak credit demand from the real sector and a high base effect from last year's government bond net financing [2][6] - Government bond net financing decreased in October, with the Ministry of Finance indicating a reduction in local government bond issuance limits, suggesting that new local bonds may be issued in November and December [2][10] - The report notes that corporate short-term loans and new short-term loans have weakened, with some short-term loans being replaced by bill financing, indicating a shift in corporate financing behavior [2][8] Group 3 - The report highlights that the broad deposit inflow from residents into the market continues, with non-bank deposits rising to seasonal highs, reflecting increased market activity and a recovery in the profitability of investments [2][25] - The M1 growth rate has declined, and the M1-M2 spread has expanded, indicating a weakening correlation between M1, M2, and economic activity, while showing a stronger correlation with equity market performance [2][29][32] - The bond market is currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the recent central bank actions and weakening fundamentals [2][6]