2026年展望系列一：通胀或进入温和修复阶段

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, the inflation center is expected to rise moderately, with the CPI year - on - year center at about 0.6%, PPI at about - 1.9%, and the deflator at an average of about - 0.25%. The inflation pattern will transition from weak deflation to moderate recovery, and the price system will enter a stable repair stage [2]. - Food prices will turn from continuous decline in 2025 to moderate repair, and will change from a negative contribution to a weak support for the inflation center in 2026 [2]. - Energy prices are likely to be in a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand, oscillating weakly", with limited direct support for inflation and mainly transmitting moderately through cost and expectation channels [15]. - Core CPI is expected to continue to rise moderately in 2026, with the annual center between 0.8% - 1.2% [4]. - PPI is expected to show a structural repair trend in 2026, with the year - on - year decline gradually narrowing and approaching zero growth in the third quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Review - In 2025, the overall price level was low. The CPI cumulative year - on - year was - 0.1%, showing signs of bottoming in October. Food was the main drag, while service items provided support. The PPI cumulative year - on - year was - 2.7%, and the month - on - month turned positive in October, mainly due to the effective reduction of supply in some industries [10]. 3.2 Food Prices - In 2026, food prices are expected to show a trend of "stable first and then rising, with converging fluctuations". The turning point of the pig cycle may be the key factor. The pig price cycle is about 48.5 months, and a new cycle in 2026 may drive the pig price to bottom out and stabilize. In the first quarter, the negative contribution of pork to food prices may increase, and it will gradually narrow from the second quarter [13][14]. 3.3 Energy Prices - In 2026, energy prices will probably be in a "strong supply and weak demand, oscillating weakly" pattern. On the supply side, production expansion has significantly lowered the current oil price center. On the demand side, the global energy consumption has slowed down cyclically, and the rapid penetration of new - energy vehicles has continuously weakened the demand elasticity of gasoline and diesel [15][16]. 3.4 Core Inflation - Since 2025, core inflation has continued to recover. In 2026, it is expected to continue to rise moderately under the combined effects of continued consumption - promotion policies, income improvement, and consumption structure upgrading. The annual core CPI center may be between 0.8% - 1.2%. Service consumption, precious metals and high - price durable goods, and housing - related prices will all contribute to the rise of core CPI [19][20]. 3.5 Industrial Product Prices - In 2026, with the deepening of supply - side reform and the continuous advancement of the "anti - involution" policy, the PPI decline is expected to narrow. The upstream prices are expected to stop falling and rise, the mid - stream prices will stop falling and stabilize, and the downstream manufacturing will still be weak. The PPI year - on - year center is expected to be around - 1.95% [21]. 3.6 Inflation Outlook - In 2026, macro - policies will continue to be positive. The CPI is expected to rise moderately, showing a trend of low in the front and high in the back, with an annual growth rate of about 0.66%. The PPI annual decline is expected to narrow to - 1.95%. The inflation center's downward inertia will weaken, and the endogenous economic momentum will gradually recover. The quarterly price operation will show the characteristics of "low in the front, stable in the back, and moderately repaired" [26][31].