金信期货观点-20251114

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The market has reached a consensus on the oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. PX and PTA are expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations. MEG is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The price rebounds of BZ and EB may not be sustainable [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - The OPEC+ meeting decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, US crude oil inventories are rising, and production is at a record high. The market is concerned about Russian oil exports [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load is at a high of 90%, with multiple units restarting and increasing load. PTA has new capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is tight. PXN is stable at around $250/ton. PTA has many unit shutdowns for maintenance, with a weekly开工率 of 75.8%. There is an expectation of supply increase and demand weakness before the end of the year, with a slight inventory build - up [4][8][14] MEG - The overall load of ethylene glycol has changed little. Coal - based MEG profits are shrinking, and the开工 rate is decreasing. Cost support is weakening, port inventories are at a high, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5][18] BZ & EB - The pure benzene开工率 is rising, and future planned maintenance is limited. Downstream demand is weakening, but overseas blending oil demand may provide some support. Benzene ethylene开工率 is recovering, and the short - term supply contraction effect may fade. The fundamentals of BZ and EB have limited positives, and price rebounds may not be sustainable [5][26][27] Polyester - The average weekly产能利用率 of the Chinese polyester industry is 87.52%, with little change. Downstream polyester short - fiber and long - fiber inventories are slightly decreasing. The comprehensive开工率 of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industry is 67.99%, and new orders are weakening [21]