沥青周度报告-20251114

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the asphalt futures market showed a narrow - range oscillation. There is a rebound - repair momentum after last week's sharp decline, and the relatively strong oil prices at the beginning of the week provided some support. The asphalt social inventory continued to decline. However, the market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. As the asphalt downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are difficult to improve effectively, and the expectation of crude oil supply surplus will suppress the market in the medium - to - long term. The cost side offers limited upward support. In the short term, due to the large decline, there is still room for rebound - repair, and the increased volatility of crude oil will intensify short - term market fluctuations. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [8][52] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Report Summary - Market focus: Tensions between the US and Venezuela continue, with the US increasing military operations in the Caribbean. The US EIA weekly crude oil inventory increased significantly, and the OPEC market expectation shifted from tight to surplus [7] - Key data: As of November 12, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 29%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous statistical period. As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.1 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 82.5 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons from the previous week [7] 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish factors: Supply decline and geopolitical risks [11] - Bearish factors: Weakening demand [11] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC's monthly report shows that the global crude oil market expectation has shifted from balanced to surplus. Previously, OPEC expected a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day, but now it indicates a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day. OPEC has raised the supply growth forecast of non - OPEC countries by 110,000 barrels per day. In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+'s production was 43.02 million barrels per day, a decrease of 73,000 barrels per day from September. The global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. From January to September this year, global oil inventories increased by 304 million barrels. The expectation of crude oil supply surplus is the main pressure on the market, but OPEC+ has suspended the production increase plan for the first quarter of next year, and the relatively strong demand provides some support. Geopolitical uncertainties will intensify oil price fluctuations, and it is expected that crude oil will maintain a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $60 per barrel [12] - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and short - term negotiations are unlikely. The relationship between the US and Venezuela remains uncertain. Geopolitical uncertainties have not caused substantial losses to global crude oil supply for the time being, but they will affect market sentiment and intensify oil price fluctuations [13] 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt output was 51.4 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of refineries is in a seasonal decline, and it is expected that the supply will continue to decrease [14] - Demand: As of November 14, the weekly asphalt shipment volume was 36.2 tons, a decrease of 8.3 tons from the previous statistical date, reaching the lowest level since May. The demand in the north has decreased due to low - temperature weather, and the improvement in the south is not obvious. The weekly capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt was 11.22%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from last week but a 0.55 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. It is in a seasonal decline [24][27] - Inventory: As of November 14, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 64.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons, mainly in the southwest and south regions. The social inventory was 82.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.2 tons, continuing the downward trend since August [34][41] - Spread: As of November 14, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing dilution was - 613 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.8 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic asphalt basis was 301 yuan/ton, at a high level in recent years. As of November 12, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 52.38 [50] 3.5 Market Outlook - The market lacks bullish drivers and is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3130 - 3170 yuan/ton for the BU2601 contract [52]