Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation has short - term positive exhaustion but remains optimistic in the medium - term. The end of the US government shutdown has a complex impact on the market. Domestically, the economy in October was generally stable with new kinetic energy growing. Fundamentally, overseas supply concerns support aluminum prices, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the aluminum price may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations, awaiting more economic data [6][7] - The trading strategy is to expect the aluminum price to encounter resistance at 22,000, maintain high - level oscillations, and wait for more economic data [8] Summary by Directory Report Summary - The US government shutdown ended on November 12, 2025. The macro situation has short - term positive exhaustion, and the US employment data decline increases the expectation of a December interest rate cut. In China, the economy in October was generally stable, with social financing growth stable and the M2 - M1 gap widening [5][6] - Fundamentally, overseas supply concerns support aluminum prices, but downstream demand is expected to weaken after the traditional peak season. The aluminum price may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations [7] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Market risk preference improves, the increase in positions and upward movement attract capital attention, and overseas aluminum supply and demand remain tight [11] - Bearish factors: The demand side shows signs of weakening, and social inventory destocking is not smooth [11] Data Analysis - Aluminum ore supply: In September 2025, China's domestic bauxite production was 488.21 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 2.32%. Supply was tight in the short term but is expected to recover significantly later. In September, China imported 15.88 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month decrease of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 37.5%. The impact of the rainy season on imports will end in October [21][24] - Alumina production: In October 2025, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.8% year - on - year. It is expected that there will be regional production cuts and maintenance in November, and the cost will continue to decline [26] - Electrolytic aluminum production: In October 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased. In November, production may be restricted by environmental protection policies, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline slightly [30] - Electrolytic aluminum cost and profit: In September 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 15,918 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 193 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit reached 4,849 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 301 yuan/ton [34] - Aluminum processing: In the traditional peak season from October to November, the aluminum processing industry was under pressure due to high aluminum prices. The overall aluminum processing start - up rate was 61.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6% [38] - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory and SHFE aluminum inventory both decreased slightly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots was volatile, and as of November 13, it was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from Monday [49][52] - Premium and discount: On November 13, the Shanghai Wumaomao aluminum average price premium and discount was - 10 yuan/ton, with the discount narrowing; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium and discount was - 27.55 US dollars/ton, with the discount widening [56] - Recycled aluminum: In October, domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 645,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons. The start - up rate of small enterprises was only 13.82%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. As of November 6, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 59.1%, unchanged week - on - week [60][64] - Aluminum alloy import: In September 2025, the import of unwrought aluminum alloy was about 82,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12,500 tons (13.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons (15.77%). It is expected that the import increase in October will be limited and lower than the same period [68] - Aluminum alloy inventory: As of November 7, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 72,800 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, and the in - factory inventory was 59,900 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons from the previous week [73] Future Outlook - Aluminum alloy: It follows the aluminum price trend. Attention should be paid to marginal changes in raw material circulation and signs of demand improvement [74] - SHFE aluminum: It may face resistance at 22,000 and maintain high - level oscillations, awaiting more economic data [76]
铝产业链周度报告-20251114
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-11-14 10:33