Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. In the short - term, the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Given the weakening fundamentals, short - term investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks, and medium - term long positions should be held [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened higher but then declined in the morning, fluctuated narrowly in the afternoon, and rebounded at the end of the session. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.37%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 21.28 billion yuan, with a net injection of 7.11 billion yuan [1]. 2. Important Information - From January to October 2025, China's urban fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [2]. - Central Bank Deputy Governor Tao Ling stated that the "involution - style competition" in the financial industry should be restricted to maintain a reasonable profit margin [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The decline of the A - share market in the afternoon may have contributed to the rebound of Treasury bond futures at the end of the session. Most of the economic data released on the day for October were below expectations, with the decline in investment growth deepening and the slowdown of industrial production growth. Only consumption was slightly better than expected [3]. - The social financing data released the previous day showed insufficient financing demand from residents and enterprises. Coupled with the peak of government bond issuance having passed, the year - on - year social financing decreased significantly [3]. 4. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 14 Price | 2025 - 11 - 13 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 14 Position | 2025 - 11 - 13 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.446 | 102.462 | - 0.016 | 80,625 | 84,143 | - 3,518 | | TF2512 | 105.85 | 105.88 | - 0.03 | 159,434 | 163,467 | - 4,033 | | T2512 | 108.39 | 108.415 | - 0.025 | 281,658 | 283,711 | - 2,053 | | TL2512 | 116.07 | 116.13 | - 0.06 | 179,301 | 178,373 | 928 | | TS (CTD) Basis | - 0.0135 | - 0.0174 | 0.0039 | 35,578 | 19,118 | 16,460 | | TF (CTD) Basis | 0.0144 | - 0.0357 | 0.0501 | 52,534 | 58,282 | - 5,748 | | T (CTD) Basis | 0.1071 | 0.0891 | 0.018 | 63,609 | 70,905 | - 7,296 | | TL (CTD) Basis | 0.1865 | 0.1992 | - 0.0127 | 80,779 | 81,516 | - 737 | [4]
国债期货日报-20251114
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-14 10:43