——10月金融数据点评：存款搬家延续，债市进入等待期

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.5% in October 2025, down from 8.7% in September 2025, indicating weakened credit demand from the real economy [3][4] - New RMB loans in October 2025 amounted to 0.22 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the 0.50 trillion yuan recorded in October 2024, reflecting a decrease in both corporate and household loan demand [3][4] - The report suggests that the current financial data indicates a temporary reduction in fiscal support for the real economy, with improvements in credit demand requiring further policy support [4] Financial Data Analysis - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing has decreased, attributed to weak credit demand from the real sector and a high base effect from last year's government bond net financing [4][5] - Government bond net financing has slowed down, with the Ministry of Finance indicating a reduction in local government bond issuance limits, which may lead to concentrated issuance in November and December [4][8] - Corporate short-term loans and new loans have weakened, with some short-term loans being replaced by bill financing, indicating a shift in corporate financing strategies [4][10] Household Financing Trends - Household short-term and long-term loans have both declined, driven by weak consumer sentiment and housing demand, particularly due to a cooling real estate market [4][16] - The report notes that the overall household financing demand remains subdued, necessitating stronger fiscal and monetary policy support to stimulate growth [4][28] Market Dynamics - The report observes a continued trend of household deposits moving into the equity market, with the balance of margin financing in the A-share market increasing, suggesting a recovery in market sentiment [4][29] - The M1 growth rate has decreased, while the M1-M2 spread has expanded, indicating a weakening correlation between these metrics and economic activity, with a stronger link to equity market performance [4][33][35] - The report emphasizes that the current state of the bond market is characterized by uncertainty, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8% and limited short-term downward potential [4][36]