国投期货化工日报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ☆☆☆ (implies a certain state, but unclear from the context whether it's bullish or bearish) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (not clear from context, just following the format) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (bullish, with a clear upward trend and investment opportunities) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (bearish, with a downward trend but low operability) [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand is generally weak, with different products showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4][5][6][7] - For some products, such as methanol and ethylene glycol, there are downward pressure and bearish expectations; while for others like plastic and soda ash, there are upward trends and investment opportunities [1][2][7] Summaries by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The two - olefin futures contracts rose slightly after an intraday high - low movement. The supply is loose, the production enterprises want to stabilize the market, but the trading is average. The demand for propylene has some support due to the resumption of previously shut - down butanol and octanol plants [2] - The plastic and polypropylene futures contracts rose slightly. The supply of polyethylene is stable, but the demand from packaging and shed film factories is weakening. The supply pressure of polypropylene is increasing slightly, and the market has supply - demand contradictions [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, leading to an increase in the outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene. The price of unified benzene has some elasticity, but the downstream profits are weak, so the rebound height should be viewed cautiously [3] - The styrene futures contract rose significantly. The overseas market provides support, but the future supply is expected to increase [3] Polyester - The PX price rebound drives up the PTA price, but considering the weakening demand and uncertain overseas demand, a cautious bullish view is taken [4] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and the supply pressure is large. A bearish view is maintained in the medium - term, and attention should be paid to the device dynamics [4] - The short - fiber market has a good spot pattern but weakening demand expectations. The bottle - chip demand is weakening, and the long - term pressure is over - capacity [4] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. The import volume is high, the port inventory is accumulating, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. It may continue to be under pressure in the short - term [5] - The urea futures price fluctuated narrowly. The new device in Xinjiang is producing, and the industrial compound fertilizer production is increasing. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly rising price center [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price fluctuated strongly. The cancellation of the Indian BIS certification has little impact, and the market is in a supply - high - demand - low situation, expected to fluctuate narrowly [6] - The caustic soda price showed an oscillating trend. The upstream cost is rising, the price is weakening, and the supply is high while the demand is insufficient [6] Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash price fluctuated strongly. The light - soda market is okay, the cost is rising, and the supply is high in the long - term, showing an oversupply situation [7] - The glass price decreased with increased positions. The intermediate inventory is high, the cost is rising, and the processing orders are improving but still insufficient compared to the same period last year. It is recommended to wait and see [7]