第四范式(06682):立足AI软硬协同,2025Q3首次单季盈利

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 72.80 HKD, maintaining the current rating [3][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q3 2025, driven by platform revenue growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 44.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%. The Q3 revenue was 17.76 billion RMB, up 31.4% year-on-year [1]. - The "XianZhi" platform continued to show strong growth, generating 15.43 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, accounting for 86.9% of total revenue [1]. - The number of benchmark customers increased to 103, with a significant rise in average revenue per user (ARPU) to 25.49 million RMB, up 71.4% year-on-year [1]. - Research and development efficiency improved, with R&D expenses of 14.89 billion RMB for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, and an R&D expense ratio of 33.8%, down 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 5,261 million RMB, 2025E at 7,181 million RMB, 2026E at 9,579 million RMB, and 2027E at 12,539 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25.13%, 36.50%, 33.41%, and 30.89% respectively [8]. - The company is expected to turn profitable with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB in 2025E, increasing to 802 million RMB by 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 121.76% and 154.35% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.52 RMB in 2024A to 1.54 RMB in 2027E [8].