基差方向周度预测-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's third - quarter monetary policy implementation report indicates a natural decline in financial aggregate growth, and mentions points such as downplaying monetary policy quantity targets, maintaining a reasonable interest - rate ratio, and vigorously developing the bond market's "science and technology board". [2] - In October, both CPI and PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Besides the contribution of the low - base effect, the effects of monetary and fiscal policies and industrial policies like anti - involution and capacity reduction are evident, especially in industries such as non - ferrous metals, building materials, and new energy. [2] - October financial data shows a slowdown in social financing and credit growth, with insufficient credit demand. At the same time, non - bank deposits increased by 77 billion yuan year - on - year, and the process of deposit transfer continues. [2] - The US federal government's temporary appropriation bill was passed, ending the 6 - week shutdown. The shutdown pulled down the US fourth - quarter annualized GDP growth rate by 1.5%, and the secondary impact on residents' lives is hard to estimate. The annual appropriation is still undetermined, and there may be another shutdown in two months. [2] - After the shutdown ended, the market trading theme shifted to interest - rate cuts. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a significant decline in the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut, triggering a sharp drop in US stocks and an increase in US bonds. [2] - This week's full - A trading volume was basically flat compared to last week, maintaining at around 2 trillion yuan per day. The margin trading balance rose slightly to nearly 2.5 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index once reached a new high since 4000 points but fell back at the end of Friday's session, declining 0.18% for the whole week. Major broad - based indexes turned negative at the end of Friday's session, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 falling more than 1% for the week, the SSE 50 closing flat, and micro - cap stocks performing outstandingly. The correction of the STAR Market and ChiNext continues. [2] - In terms of basis, the recent basis fluctuation range is still small. The annualized basis of each variety has decreased compared to last week. The IH has switched to a slight discount state, and the annualized discounts of IF, IC, and IM have reached around 3%, 11%, and 14% respectively, with the term structure becoming steeper, and far - month contracts having a greater advantage in hedging costs. [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Forecast Conclusion - This week's model predicts that the movement directions of the basis for IH, IF, IC, and IM next week are strengthening, weakening, weakening, and weakening respectively [4]