Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upside space for soybean meal is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. For rapeseed meal, the upside space is also limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract [3]. - Internationally, the US government shutdown continues, and the market lacks data guidance. Attention is focused on the return of US soybean orders due to Sino-US policy agreements. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure is expected to ease as imports decline [3]. - The global rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 season is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and downstream aquaculture is entering the off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation for rapeseed meal [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Supply and Demand - US Soybeans - The market expects a downward adjustment of US soybean yield in the upcoming USDA report, with tightening fundamentals supporting the price. The current price is in the range of 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The average analyst forecast for the 2025/26 yield is 32.85 bushels per acre, down from 33.5 in September. The end - of - season inventory is expected to decrease. Policy - wise, the suspension of some tariffs has not led to large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans [16][17]. - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.02 dollars per bushel, a 6.40% week - on - week decrease and a 35.87% year - on - year decrease. As of November 6, the US soybean export inspection volume was 108.86 tons, in line with expectations [18]. - South American Soybeans - Brazilian soybean planting is over half - completed, but the progress is behind last year due to local rainfall. Argentina's planting has started. China's purchases support the Brazilian soybean premium, which remains stable. As of November 8, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 38.4%, lower than last year's 66.1% and the five - year average of 57%. Anec expects Brazil's November soybean exports to reach 426 tons [26][27]. 2. CFTC Positions - As of September 23, 2025, the CBOT soybean non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, as well as the CBOT soybean meal non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and total positions, showed certain trends. The non - commercial net long positions and their ratios of CBOT soybean meal also had corresponding changes [42][44][46]. 3. Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 season, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 523 tons, a 6.11% increase, mainly due to production increases in the EU and Canada. Consumption demand is expected to increase by 2.06%. International rapeseed trade volume may decline, and the inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio will further increase [53]. - As of November 2, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 21.2% week - on - week to 18.84 tons. From August 1 to November 2, 2025, the export volume was 142.33 tons, a 54.1% decrease compared to the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 131.87 tons [53]. 4. Domestic Meal Supply and Demand - Imports - In October 2025, China imported 393.2 tons of soybeans, a 338.7 - ton decrease from September and a 123.5 - ton increase from October 2024, a 17.25% increase. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9568.2 tons, a 6.39% increase year - on - year [64]. - Forecasts show that 932.75 tons of soybeans are expected to arrive in October, 80 tons in November, and 800 tons in December. As of November 11, the procurement progress for November was 98.83%, 43.93% for December, 5.28% for January 2026, 32.63% for February, and 62.08% for March [65]. - Crushing and Operating Rates - As of the week ending November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 180.57 tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected that in the 46th week (November 8 - 14), the operating rate will rise significantly, with a predicted crushing volume of 215.79 tons and an operating rate of 59.36% [86]. - The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0% this week and next week [87]. - Inventory - As of the week ending November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills was 761.95 tons, a 7.20% increase from last week and a 35.97% increase from last year. The rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 51.40 tons, a 0.08 - ton decrease from last week [101]. - Downstream Demand - As of November 13, the total national soybean meal sales volume was 66.34 tons, a 22.11 - ton increase week - on - week. The daily average sales volume was 17.27 tons, a 3.22 - ton increase. The total soybean meal pick - up volume was 90 tons, a 2.05 - ton decrease week - on - week [119]. 5. Basis and Spread - The coastal soybean meal spot price this week was in the range of 3010 - 3050 yuan per ton, with mixed price changes compared to last week. The national weekly average price was 3080 yuan per ton. The average basis of each region also showed mixed changes. As of November 14, the basis of the January soybean meal contract in Rizhao was - 33 yuan per ton, and the basis of the January rapeseed meal contract in Dongguan was 128 yuan per ton [137].
【粕类周报】报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏强-20251114
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-11-14 11:27