2026年固定收益年度投资策略：新时代，新生态，再平衡

Asset Allocation - The investment research framework has evolved from the traditional Merrill Lynch clock to a Chinese-style monetary credit model, reflecting significant changes in China's economic development model and the diminishing role of investment in driving economic growth [12] - In the new era, liquidity is identified as a core factor influencing asset prices, with the monetary cycle remaining highly relevant. Additionally, international factors, exemplified by US-China relations, significantly impact export engines and cross-border capital flows, becoming crucial for capturing asset price changes [12] Historical Review of Stock and Bond Performance - The report reviews stock and bond performance since 2018, highlighting that in 2018, macroeconomic fundamentals were weak, leading to significant stock market declines while bonds provided good coupon returns. In 2019, equity markets experienced volatility, and bonds continued to offer protection [18] - The analysis indicates that from 2020 to 2025, equity markets have shown resilience driven by technology stocks and structural bull markets, while bonds have entered a bull market phase characterized by declining yields [18] Long-term Bond Market Trends - Historical data shows that each bond bull market corresponds with a downward trend in 10-year government bond yields, driven by the interplay of "debt bulls" and "asset scarcity" [20] - The current bond bull market has seen 10-year government bond yields reach new lows, indicating a significant shift in the bond market landscape [21] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is believed to be in a long-term upward trend, with the current phase identified as the third wave of a five-wave cycle. This phase is expected to last longer than previous cycles, indicating a gradual upward movement [25] - The report draws parallels with Japan's experience, noting that after the economic bubble burst in the 1990s, the Japanese stock market entered a long-term upward channel, supported by structural reforms and monetary easing [29] Core Investment Themes - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, driven by stable US-China relations and a supportive global monetary environment. It suggests that technology stocks will lead the market in the next 5-10 years [36] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile environment, with a focus on coupon strategies as interest rates are projected to fluctuate between 1.7% and 2.0% [36]