菜籽类市场周报：受现货走强提振，菜油期价明显走强-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, although Canadian rapeseed exports have declined significantly, there are policy - side benefits such as the bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan. In China, near - month imported rapeseed supply is structurally tightened, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks, leading to a common shutdown phenomenon. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have strengthened significantly, with increased short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. - For rapeseed meal, analysts expect a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield forecast, and the optimistic trade sentiment supports the US soybean market price, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market through cost transmission. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is still restricted, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted with common shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. But as the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture weakens, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, affected by the strengthening of rapeseed oil prices, rapeseed meal futures prices have declined from high levels, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose significantly. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9,923 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [9]. - Market Outlook: Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 54.1% year - on - year. There are policy benefits, but the China - Canada trade negotiation on rapeseed tariffs has not reached an agreement. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is tight, oil mills have exhausted stocks and shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode. However, soybean oil has a substitution advantage, and rapeseed oil demand is mainly basic. The futures price has strengthened recently, with increased short - term fluctuations [9]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [11]. - Market Outlook: Analysts expect a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield forecast, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills have exhausted stocks and shut down. But the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is weakening, and soybean meal has a substitution advantage. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price has declined from high levels [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: Rapeseed oil futures rose significantly this week, with a total position of 248,580 lots, an increase of 38,090 lots compared to last week. Rapeseed meal futures slightly declined, with a total position of 472,680 lots, an increase of 9,194 lots compared to last week [15]. - Top 20 Net Positions: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures changed from a net short position of - 8,654 last week to a net long position of + 5,946. The top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures increased slightly from + 26,405 last week to + 27,455 [22]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 5,323 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 2,745 lots [28]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,290 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 367 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,480 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week, and the basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 10 yuan/ton [34][40]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was + 499 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was + 65 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal was 3.985, and the average spot price ratio was 4.15 [51]. - Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil and Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil Spread: The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,667 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly widened this week. The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - palm oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, and the spread also slightly widened this week [60]. - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 602 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 550 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Forecast: As of November 7, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0.5 million tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 were 650,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 6.2 million tons respectively [72]. - Supply - Side: Import Pressing Profit: As of November 13, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,247 yuan/ton [76]. - Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 45th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared to last week, and the weekly startup rate was 0.0% [80]. - Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume: In September 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [84]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. In September 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil was 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.99% and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons [88]. - Demand - Side: Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.95 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 450.86 billion yuan [92]. - Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.22% [96]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57% [100]. - Supply - Side: Import Volume: In September 2025, China's rapeseed meal import volume was 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons [104]. - Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Output: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.1287 million tons [108]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 14, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 20.65%, a decrease of 0.45% compared to last week's 21.1%, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [112].