地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告：安徽篇

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Anhui Province, covering economic, fiscal, and debt situations at provincial, municipal, and enterprise levels [4] Group 2: Anhui's Economic and Fiscal Strength Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Anhui is in the central - eastern China, adjacent to six provinces, and is a key part of the Yangtze River Delta economic zone. It has rich agricultural, mineral, and tourism resources, with well - developed land transportation [5] - In 2024, Anhui completed a GDP of 5062.5 billion yuan, ranking 11th in China, with a growth rate of 5.8%. Fixed - asset investment, especially manufacturing investment, is the main driving force. The per - capita GDP was 82,700 yuan, ranking 13th [8] - Anhui's industrial structure is being optimized, with the automobile - led manufacturing driving the economy. In 2024, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.0%, and the high - tech manufacturing increased by 14.1% [9] Fiscal Strength and Debt - In 2024, Anhui's general public budget revenue was 404.16 billion yuan, ranking 10th in China, with a 2.6% year - on - year increase. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 44.91%. The government - owned fund revenue decreased by 14.0% due to the real - estate market downturn [13][14] - By the end of 2024, Anhui's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 169.50% and 36.60% respectively, ranking 16th and 12th among 31 provinces [17] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Anhui's Prefecture - level Cities Economic Situation - Anhui's prefecture - level cities have economic disparities, with Hefei leading in GDP. In 2024, all 16 cities had a GDP over 100 billion yuan, and most cities maintained a growth rate between 5.0% - 6.5% [28] - The per - capita GDP varies greatly among cities, with southern Anhui higher than northern Anhui. Hefei had the highest per - capita GDP of 136,100 yuan in 2024 [29] - Northern Anhui has a population advantage but a lower urbanization rate. Hefei has a strong population siphon effect [30] Fiscal Revenue - The general public budget revenue of cities is in line with their economic strength. In 2024, all cities' general public budget revenues increased year - on - year, but most cities' growth rates slowed down. The government - owned fund revenues of all cities decreased [31][32] - The fiscal self - sufficiency rates of Hefei and Wuhu are over 60.0%, while 10 cities have a rate below 50.0% [33] Debt - By the end of 2024, the government debt of all cities increased. The debt ratios of Fuyang and Bozhou were relatively high, while Hefei's was the lowest [38] - Anhui is carrying out a pilot project to eliminate implicit debts and has taken measures to manage and reduce debts [42] Group 4: Solvency of Anhui's Urban Investment Enterprises Enterprise Overview - Anhui's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly at the prefectural and district levels, with more in central and southern Anhui. Most enterprises have a credit rating of AA, and high - grade ones are concentrated in Hefei [46] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by Anhui's urban investment enterprises decreased year - on - year. The net bond financing was - 46.364 billion yuan, with most cities having a net outflow [49][52] - From January to September 2025, Hefei had a relatively large net bond financing, while most other cities continued to have negative net financing [52] Solvency Analysis - By the end of 2024, the overall debt burden of Anhui's urban investment enterprises increased slightly. The debt burden of enterprises in Huaibei was relatively heavy [53] - Most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises had a weak short - term debt coverage ratio. The bonds due in 2026 in Bozhou, Wuhu, Fuyang, and Ma'anshan are relatively large [53][55] Support of Fiscal Revenue - By the end of 2024, except for Chizhou and Huangshan, the combined debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises and local governments in other cities exceeded 10 billion yuan. The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "local comprehensive financial resources" in most cities exceeded 300.00%, with Huaibei and Bengbu exceeding 600.00% [62]