回归基本面，尿素震荡偏弱

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The ex - factory prices of urea in mainstream areas are falling, and the trading volume is weak. The supply has recovered, and the ex - factory prices are expected to continue the downward trend [5]. - The domestic supply is loose, and the overall demand is showing a downward trend. The autumn fertilizer season in North China has ended, and the downstream grass - roots orders are scarce. The domestic demand is still limited in the short term, and the spot market sentiment remains sluggish [5]. - The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international market will have a greater impact on the domestic market, but the domestic autumn fertilizer is fully over, and the overall domestic demand is about to enter a "vacuum period" [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Strategy - For unilateral trading, go short at high levels; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, stay on the sidelines [5]. 2. Core Data Changes Supply - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 87.53%, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29% [6]. - In the 45th week of 2025 (20251106 - 1112), the capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 87.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81% [6]. Demand - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - In the 46th week of 2025 (20251107 - 1113), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points [6]. - As of November 14, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 1,300 tons, an increase of 280 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 27.45% [6]. - From November 7 to November 14, 2025, the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 106,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous week [6]. - As of November 12, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.71 days, an increase of 0.42 days from the previous period [6]. Inventory - On November 12, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a decrease of 94,500 tons from the previous week [6]. - The sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 82,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.8% [6]. Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is firm, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal has declined slightly. The fixed - bed production of urea has a loss of 110 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production has a loss of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 168 yuan/ton. The futures are fluctuating, the basis is - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 67 yuan/ton [6].