银河期货尿素日报-20251114

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report on November 14, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Report Focus: Urea Market in the Commodity Sector [1][2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: Urea futures fluctuated and closed at 1652 (0/0%) [3] - Spot Market: Factory prices were weakly stable with general trading. Prices varied by region, e.g., Henan at 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized at 1560 - 1600 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - Urea Daily Output: On November 14, it was 20.33 tons, an increase of 0.58 tons from the previous workday and 1.86 tons from the same period last year [4] - Urea Operating Rate: On November 14, it was 84.08%, a 2.38% increase from 81.70% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logical Analysis - Market Sentiment: The impact of the new export quota news faded, and market sentiment cooled. Mainstream spot factory prices fell with weak trading [5] - Regional Analysis: Shandong expected falling prices due to weak demand; Henan expected to follow the downward trend; the delivery area and Northeast expected stable prices [5] - Supply and Demand: Supply increased as maintenance units returned. Demand was weak as the fourth - batch quota was issued, and domestic demand entered a "vacuum period" [5] - Price Forecast: With a loose supply - demand situation, urea prices are expected to continue to decline [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: Short positions are recommended [6] - Arbitrage Strategy: Hold off on arbitrage operations [6] Group 6: Related Charts - Charts cover various aspects such as urea daily output, operating rate, production, enterprise inventory, and related downstream product data from 2022 - 2025 [10][14]