宏观策略周报：适度宽松的货币政策持续发力，十月份CPI同比由降转涨-20251114

Investment Strategy Report Summary Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, with October's CPI showing a year-on-year increase for the first time in several months, indicating a potential shift in inflation trends [1][2][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining liquidity in the financial system, with significant increases in social financing and RMB loans, suggesting a supportive environment for economic growth [1][23][26]. News and Commentary - In October, the CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with core CPI increasing by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][11]. - The PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, the first rise this year, while the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, indicating improving supply-demand dynamics [1][15][16]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) reported a total social financing increase of 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][26][27]. - Real estate prices in major cities continued to decline, with new residential prices in first-tier cities dropping by 0.3% month-on-month and 0.8% year-on-year [1][31][32]. Market Overview - The domestic securities market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a slight increase of 0.003%, while other indices like the ChiNext Index fell by 3.01% [2][36]. - Traditional industries are showing signs of recovery, while technology sectors are under pressure, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [2][34]. Investment Recommendations - Technology Sector: Companies focused on AI, semiconductor chips, robotics, and deep-sea technology are expected to benefit from the current policy direction aimed at fostering new productive forces [3][45]. - Non-Banking Financials: Brokerages may benefit from a slow bull market, while insurance companies could see improved returns on long-term assets [3][45]. - Precious Metals: Given the geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to grow [3][45]. - Energy Storage: The energy storage sector is projected to have significant growth potential driven by policy support [3][45]. - Machinery: With the recovery of manufacturing activities post-overseas interest rate cuts, sectors like construction machinery and heavy trucks are recommended for investment [3][46]. - Domestic Demand: There is a focus on boosting consumption to expand effective domestic demand, with expectations for increased consumer spending [3][47].