玉米类市场周报：基层惜售情绪升温，玉米期价震荡收高-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner this week. The price of the main 2601 contract was 2185 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from last week. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply pressure of US corn is high, but the upcoming USDA report may lower the yield per acre, and the rise of US soybeans and wheat provides external support. In China, due to weather conditions, farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, and the market supply has decreased, leading to a slight increase in enterprise purchase prices [6]. - Corn starch futures also closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner. The price of the main 2601 contract was 2505 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last week. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The supply pressure has increased due to sufficient raw material supply and rising industry operating rates, but the demand is good, and the inventory has decreased slightly [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary 3.1.1. Corn - Market Review: The main 2601 contract of corn futures closed higher in a volatile manner, with a price of 2185 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - Outlook: US corn harvest is almost finished, with high short - term supply pressure. The USDA report may lower the yield per acre, and the rise of US soybeans and wheat supports the price. In China, cold weather in the Northeast and North China has increased farmers' reluctance to sell, reducing the market supply and increasing enterprise purchase prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - Market Review: The main 2601 contract of corn starch futures closed higher in a narrow - range volatile manner, with a price of 2505 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - Outlook: With the increase in new - season corn supply, the industry operating rate has risen, increasing supply pressure. However, the demand is good, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position - Corn futures' 1 - month contract closed higher in a volatile manner, with a total position of 947302 lots, down 29717 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' 1 - month contract also closed higher, with a total position of 237935 lots, up 11853 lots from last week [13]. - The net short position of the top 20 in corn futures increased, while that of corn starch futures decreased slightly [19]. 3.2.2. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 69337, and those of corn starch were 12453 [25]. 3.2.3. Spot Price and Basis - As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2259.8 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 1 - month contract and the spot average price was +75 yuan/ton [30]. - The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2600 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, remaining relatively stable this week. The basis between the 1 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 95 yuan/ton [34]. 3.2.4. Inter - monthly Spread - The 1 - 3 spread of corn futures was - 12 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level in the same period. The 1 - 3 spread of corn starch futures was +5 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [40]. 3.2.5. Futures Spread - The spread between the 1 - month contract of starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 500 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from last week [49]. 3.2.6. Substitute Spread - As of November 13, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2484.5 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2259.8 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 224.7 yuan/ton. In the 46th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 440 yuan/ton, widening by 118 yuan/ton from last week [54]. 3.3. Industrial Chain 3.3.1. Corn - Supply: As of November 7, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 45.4 tons, up 2.90 tons from last week, and the foreign trade inventory was 41.2 tons, up 9.50 tons. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 107.1 tons, up 5.0 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 58.2 tons, down 13.40 tons week - on - week [44]. - The total corn sales progress was 24% as of November 13, 2025, up 2% from November 6 and 1% year - on - year [56]. - In September 2025, China's corn imports were 56562.26 tons, down 81.93% year - on - year and up 20404.55 tons month - on - month [60]. - As of November 13, the average inventory of feed enterprises was 25.61 days, up 0.73 days from last week, a 2.93% week - on - week increase and a 12.11% year - on - year decrease [64]. - Demand: At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 43680 million, a 2.3% year - on - year increase and a 2.9% quarter - on - quarter increase. The inventory of breeding sows was 4035 million, a 0.7% year - on - year decrease and a 0.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease [68]. - As of November 7, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was - 89.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 175.54 yuan/head [72]. - As of November 13, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was 38 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 300 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 569 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 267 yuan/ton [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - Supply: As of November 12, 2025, the corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 273.5 tons, a 2.15% decrease [81]. - From November 6 to 12, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 63.19 tons, up 0.53 tons from last week; the corn starch output was 32.84 tons, up 0.37 tons; the operating rate was 63.48%, up 0.72%. As of November 12, the national corn starch inventory was 113.3 tons, down 0.50 tons from last week, a 0.44% week - on - week decrease, a 0.44% month - on - month increase, and a 27.59% year - on - year increase [85]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of November 14, the implied volatility of the corn main 2601 contract was 7.96%, down 0.55% from last week's 8.51%. The implied volatility fluctuated and declined this week, being at a relatively low level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [88].