黑色金属日报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 螺纹: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - 热卷: Not clearly indicated in the given rating description [1] - 铁矿: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 焦炭: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 焦煤: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively clear long - term trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 锰硅: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - 硅铁: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the given rating rules, but presumably implies a certain bullish tendency [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation of the steel and related raw material market is complex, with prices mostly in a volatile state. Demand expectations are generally pessimistic, but policy easing provides some support. Each variety has its own supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and market participants need to pay attention to factors such as environmental restrictions, production changes, and macro - level events [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market showed a slight rebound in volatility. This week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased slightly, production declined simultaneously, and inventory continued to fall. The demand for hot - rolled coils stabilized, production continued to decline, and the inventory accumulation pace slowed down. Iron - making water production increased, but downstream acceptance capacity was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, there is still downward pressure in the later stage. The negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain remains to be alleviated. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan and other places. From the October data, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continued to decline, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports declined from their high levels. Demand expectations are still pessimistic, but policy easing still provides some support to the futures market. In the short term, it may continue the volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market trends and marginal changes in demand [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market was volatile, and the basis was relatively high recently. On the supply side, global shipments were slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine was officially put into production, but the short - term production capacity that could be released was limited. The domestic arrival volume was at a high level for the same period, and port inventory continued to increase. There was some structural movement in Australian ore inventory. On the demand side, steel demand declined in the off - season, the loss situation of steel mills intensified, and although iron - making water production rebounded this week, there was still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, several important events had been implemented, and the short - term impact on the futures market weakened. The market began to trade the reality of a marginally looser iron ore market, and it is expected that the iron ore price will mainly fluctuate [3] Coke - The intraday coke price was volatile. The fourth round of coking price adjustments was fully implemented this week. Coking profits were still average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers made small - scale purchases as needed, and inventory decreased slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price may mainly fluctuate [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking coal price was volatile. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices fluctuated. Terminal inventory increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. Safety inspections were carried out in major coal - producing areas, and attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant. Downstream iron - making water production returned to a high - level range, and the demand for raw materials remained resilient. However, the profit level of steel was average, and there was strong pressure to lower raw material prices. The coke futures price was at a premium, and the coking coal futures price was at a discount to Mongolian coal. The market had certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal - producing areas, and the price may mainly fluctuate [6] Silicon Manganese - The intraday silicon manganese price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but the production was still at a high level, and silicon manganese inventory increased slowly. The forward quotation of Comilog manganese ore increased slightly compared with the previous period. The price of spot manganese ore changed quickly with the fluctuations of the futures market and increased this week [7] Silicon Iron - The intraday silicon iron price was volatile. A large steel mill in the north set the tender price at 5,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. On the demand side, iron - making water production rebounded to a high - level range. Export demand increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased compared with the previous period, and the secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand remained resilient. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to decline. The increase in electricity costs and the price of blue charcoal led to a certain sentiment of a bottom - bouncing rebound in silicon iron, and it is judged that the price is more likely to rise than to fall [8]