国投期货农产品日报-20251114

Report Investment Ratings - Douyi (Soybean): ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Douyou (Soybean Oil): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Zonglvyou (Palm Oil): ☆☆☆, also indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Doupo (Soybean Meal): ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caiyou (Rapeseed Oil): ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Caipo (Rapeseed Meal): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Yumi (Corn): ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Shengzhu (Live Pigs): ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability [1] - Jidan (Eggs): ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, soybean meal, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides insights into supply - demand situations, price trends, and factors affecting prices, and offers corresponding investment strategies [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Soybean - Domestic soybeans have seen a significant increase in positions and a strong price rise. Some enterprises have raised purchase prices, and the gap with imported soybeans has widened. Attention should be paid to the US Department of Agriculture report for imported soybeans [2] - US soybeans have hit recent highs, and domestic soybeans are in a situation of sufficient supply and poor crushing profits. South American new - season soybean planting progress is slow, and the impact of La Nina on production needs attention. Focus on the USDA November supply - demand report and the signing and implementation of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Both soybean oil and palm oil prices are falling, with the soybean - palm oil price difference widening. The high inventory of Malaysian palm oil needs attention, and the supply - demand situation in November will guide price trends. The loss of near - end import soybean crushing profit supports soybean oil prices [4] Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean meal futures contract M2601 has risen following the increase in US soybeans. The current supply of soybeans is sufficient, and inventories are at a relatively high level. Strategies should focus on the opportunity to go long after the easing of Sino - US trade relations [3] Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic rapeseed - related futures have declined slightly, and market sentiment is cautious before the release of the US agricultural supply - demand report. Rapeseed oil is relatively strong, with inventory declining. The Canadian biofuel incentive plan affects rapeseed prices, and attention should be paid to Australian and Canadian rapeseed situations [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures 2601 contract is oscillating at a high level. Farmers in the Northeast are reluctant to sell, and the overall grain - selling progress is slow. The supply in Shandong is tight. The rebound height is expected to be limited, and the 01 contract is waiting for a correction [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures market is weakly adjusting with reduced positions. The overall average selling price has little change. Pay attention to the impact of demand changes on slaughter volume after the temperature drop in the North. The market is expected to have a double - bottom pattern in the long - term [8] Eggs - Egg futures have significantly reduced positions and prices have dropped rapidly. The trading logic has switched to the spot logic of high production capacity, large supply pressure, and off - season demand. Hold short positions established at the previous high [9]