国投期货软商品日报-20251114

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ (implied by the context as it's the highest rating available and not explicitly stated otherwise) [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, logs, natural rubber, 20 - rubber, and butadiene rubber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, and inventory situations [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are slightly down with a risk of short - term downward breakout due to new cotton listing and average demand. New cotton cost provides support, but price increases face hedging pressure. As of November 6, national cumulative processed lint was 319.3 million tons, up 59.5 million tons year - on - year. The cotton yarn market is stable with rigid demand. Suggest to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight US sugar oscillated. Brazilian production data in mid - October was neutral, with the end of the current sugar - making season approaching. In China, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. There are rumors of syrup import control, providing support. The market focuses on the next season's production estimate. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - Futures prices are strong. Apple purchases in Shandong are nearing completion, and cold - storage trading has started in the northwest. As of November 13, national cold - storage apple inventory was 735.77 million tons, down 12% year - on - year. The market focus shifts to sales expectations. In the short - term, prices are strong, but long - term de - stocking is a concern [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber and 20 - rubber futures prices are down, butadiene rubber futures prices oscillate weakly. Global natural rubber supply is at a high level, but Yunnan's production is decreasing. Domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rates are rising. Demand is slowly weakening, and rubber inventories are increasing. Suggest RU&BR for rebound trading, NR for waiting and see, and focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures prices are down. As of November 13, China's mainstream pulp import inventory was 211.0 million tons, up 5.1% month - on - month and 21.3% year - on - year. Overseas broad - leaf pulp prices are strong, but downstream procurement is average. The pulp valuation is low with medium - long - term improvement expectations. Short - term upward space may be limited, but there is a rumored risk of cornering the market. Suggest to hold long positions cautiously [6] Logs - Futures prices oscillate. New Zealand's radiata pine prices are rising in November, but domestic prices are weak. Importers' willingness to import is low, and domestic supply may remain low. Demand provides support, and low inventory supports prices. Suggest to wait and see [7]