银河期货甲醇日报-20251114

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: November 14, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market decreased with increased positions, closing at 2055 (-52/-2.47%) [2] - Spot Market: Various regions had different spot prices, with production areas like Inner Mongolia南线 at 1960 yuan/ton and consumption areas like Lunan at 2100 yuan/ton [2] Group 3: Important Information - Weekly Production: China's methanol production this week (20251107 - 1113) was 1,976,025 tons, a decrease of 12,880 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 87.08%, a 0.65% week - on - week decline [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 320 yuan/ton, domestic supply was continuously abundant, and coal prices rebounded [4] - Import: US dollar prices fell rapidly, import parity widened, and Iranian production returned to normal [4] - Demand: MTO device operating rate rebounded, and some MTO devices had different operating loads [4] - Inventory: Port inventory accumulation cycle ended, basis was strong, and inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [4] - Overall Trend: With high inventory, methanol was expected to continue its downward trend, although there were some minor disturbances [4] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Hold short positions [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [6]