Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may continue to be revised downwards. The December contract of US corn has strong support at 420 cents per bushel. The selling pressure in the Northeast market has weakened, but the supply of corn in North China is relatively low, causing the corn spot price to rise. In the short term, corn will continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the rebound space of contracts 01 and 05 is limited. The spread between contracts 01 and 05 has narrowed. According to the seasonal pattern, the rebound space of the spot price in November is limited. [4] - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and starch inventory has decreased, but it remains at a historically high level for the same period. As the spot price of corn is relatively strong, the spot price of starch is also rising. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate of starch enterprises will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, there is still room for the spot price of starch to fall. It is expected that the December contract of corn starch will fluctuate at a high level following corn. [4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn Situation: The US corn is expected to have its yield per unit revised down, but the yield is high. It oscillates at around 430 cents per bushel this week, with strong support at 420 cents per bushel for the December contract. Although the tariff for importing US corn into China has been adjusted, there is still no profit in importing US corn. The focus of the market is on farmers' selling rhythm, and there may still be selling pressure on Northeast corn in November. In the short term, the supply of Northeast corn is increasing, and downstream demand for replenishment is driving up the price. The supply of North China corn has decreased, and the corn spot price is oscillating strongly. It is expected that the purchase price at the northern ports will be supported at around 2120 yuan per ton. Contract 01 of corn futures will oscillate at a high level, with limited short - term rebound space. [4] - Starch Situation: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 is good, and inventory has decreased but remains high. The spot price of starch is rising with the relatively strong corn price. However, the profit of starch factories in North China has declined, and the operating rate will continue to increase. With the large - scale listing of new corn, the spot price of starch may fall. It is expected that contract 01 of corn starch will follow corn and oscillate at a high level. [4] - Trading Strategies - For single - sided trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn below 420 cents per bushel. For contract 05 of corn, consider long - term buying below 2220 yuan per ton. [5] - For arbitrage, consider buying contract 01 of corn and selling contract 01 of starch, and short the spread when the price is high. [5] - For options, consider a cumulative purchase strategy for contract 05 of corn at low prices. [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - International Market - US Corn: The October report has not been released yet. It is expected that the yield per unit of US corn will continue to be revised down, but the US corn is in a bumper harvest. The price is oscillating at the bottom, and the December contract has support at 420 cents per bushel. Although China has adjusted tariffs on US agricultural products, there is still no profit in importing US corn. As of November 13, the import profit of Brazilian corn at Guangdong Port is 164 yuan per ton. As of November 6, the weekly export inspection volume of US corn is 1.42 million tons, with a cumulative export volume of 13.73 million tons. The export volume to China this week is 0 tons, with a cumulative export volume of 0 tons. In September, the import volume of corn is 60,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 930,000 tons, compared with 12.83 million tons in the same period last year. As of September 23, the non - commercial net short position of US corn has increased, and the ethanol production has increased. [8][10][11][12][17] - Domestic Market - Corn Consumption and Inventory - Feed enterprises: As of November 12, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 25.61 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.73 days, and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. [21] - Deep - processing enterprises: From November 7 to November 12, 2025, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.3865 million tons of corn, a week - on - week increase of 46,000 tons. As of November 12, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 273,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15%. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week. [22] - Port Inventory: As of November 7, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 50,000 tons, and the shipping volume of the four ports is 582,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 134,000 tons. In Guangdong Port, the domestic corn inventory is 454,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons; the foreign - trade inventory is 412,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,000 tons; the imported sorghum is 417,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons; the imported barley is 706,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons; the total grain inventory is 1.989 million tons, an increase of 35,000 tons. [25] - Corn Selling Progress: The selling progress of corn in the main producing areas across the country is faster than last year. The overall national selling progress (including all 13 provinces) is 24%, a week - on - week increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 21%, a week - on - week increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 2%. [26] - Starch Situation: From November 7 to November 13, the national corn processing volume is 631,900 tons, and the starch production is 328,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,000 tons. The operating rate is 63.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%. The spot price of corn in North China has risen, driving up the spot price of starch. The by - product price is stable, and the enterprise profit is stable. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 33 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan, and the profit in Shandong is 36 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan. Downstream提货 volume has increased, the operating rate has risen, and starch inventory has decreased. As of November 12, the corn starch inventory is 1.133 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.59%. It is expected that the starch inventory will increase next week. [30] - Substitute - Wheat: The factory - delivered price of wheat in North China is basically 2,490 yuan per ton, and the price is relatively strong. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed. The price of corn in North China and Northeast China is strong, the price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened, and the price difference between North China corn and contract 01 of corn has increased. [36] - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: From November 7 to November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 64 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 121 yuan per head, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan. The breeding profit of white - feather broilers is - 0.47 yuan per chicken, compared with - 0.31 yuan per chicken last week. The breeding cost of laying hens is 3.44 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.43 yuan per catty, compared with - 0.52 yuan per catty last week. [41][47] - Deep - processing of Corn Starch - Downstream Consumption: This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 40.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the operating rate of maltose syrup is 43.68%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The operating rate of corrugated paper is 66.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%; the operating rate of boxboard paper is 70.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64%. [50] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking No specific additional data tracking content is provided other than what has been summarized above.
玉米现货上涨，盘面偏强震荡
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-14 11:50