油料米与通货米价差较大，盘面冲高回落

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Oilseed Peanuts and Commodity Peanuts Have a Large Price Difference, Futures Market Rallies and Then Retreats" [1] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Trading Logic: Peanut trading volume decreased. Henan commodity peanut prices rose, Shandong peanut prices fell, and Northeast prices rose. Imported peanut prices were stable, and imports decreased significantly. Oil mill operating rates remained flat, peanut meal prices were stable, peanut oil prices were weak, and oil mill profit margins were stable. Downstream consumption remained weak, oil mill peanut inventories increased, and peanut oil inventories continued to rise. The market expects peanut production to be flat or slightly higher than last year. Henan peanuts have a high mold rate, and oil mills have not yet made large - scale purchases. This week, the 01 peanut contract rallied and then retreated, and the 1 - 5 spread was strong [4]. - Strategy: Peanuts are in a bottom - oscillating pattern. The 01 peanut contract is in a bottom - oscillating pattern. Consider establishing long positions in the 05 peanut contract on dips. For the spread, conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread at high levels, and the 12 - 1 industry can try positive arbitrage. An option strategy of selling the pk601 - P - 7600 option can be attempted [4]. Group 4: Chapter 1 - Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Analyzes the price trends of different regions of peanuts, import prices, oil mill operations, and downstream consumption, and points out the trends of futures contracts and spreads [4]. - Strategy: Provides trading strategies for futures contracts, spreads, and options [4]. Group 5: Chapter 2 - Core Logic Analysis Peanut Price - Domestic Peanuts: Henan and Northeast peanut prices rose. Shandong Junan large peanuts were at 3.6 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin from last week; Henan Zhengyang new - season peanuts were at 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from last week; Liaoning Changtu Baisha was at 4.5 yuan/jin, up 0.2 yuan/jin from last week; Jilin Fuyu Baisha was at 4.45 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin from last week. Commodity peanut trading was average, and Henan peanut prices started to rise [9]. - Oil Mill Oilseed Peanuts: Oil mill purchase prices fell, and most mills stopped purchasing. The basic purchase price was 7300 - 7450 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from last week [9]. - Imported Peanuts: Sudan new peanuts were at 8600 yuan/ton, Senegalese oilseed peanuts were at 7800 yuan/ton, and Indian 50/60 were quoted at 8000 yuan/ton, with prices stable compared to last week [9]. Domestic Demand - Oil Mill Operating Rate: As of November 13, the peanut oil mill operating rate this week was 16.21%, unchanged from last week [13]. - Oil Mill Inventory: This week, the oil mill arrival volume was 25,100 tons, down 2700 tons from last week. Oil mill peanut inventories were 47,200 tons, up 1300 tons from last week. Peanut oil inventories were 40,500 tons, up 100 tons from last week [13]. Pressing Profit - Pressing Profit: Peanut oil mill purchase prices decreased, peanut meal prices were stable, and peanut oil prices were weak. As a result, the oil mill pressing profit was 259 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from last week [17]. - Peanut Oil Price: The average price of first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 yuan/ton, stable compared to last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16,300 yuan/ton, also stable compared to last week [17]. - Peanut Meal: Due to the strong soybean meal spot market, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was low, and peanut meal prices were stable at 3210 yuan/ton this week, unchanged from last week [17]. Basis and Spread - Spread: This week, due to the rally and subsequent retreat of the 01 peanut contract, the 1 - 4 peanut spread was strong, stabilizing around - 30 yuan [24]. - Spot - Futures Price Difference: It retreated [24]. Peanut Imports - Peanut Kernel Imports: In September, peanut kernel imports were 34,000 tons, and from January to September, imports were 164,000 tons, a 71% decrease compared to the same period last year [28]. - Peanut Kernel Exports: In September, peanut kernel exports were 10,000 tons, and from January to September, cumulative exports were 115,000 tons, a 24% increase compared to the same period last year [28]. - Peanut Oil Imports: In September, peanut oil imports were 36,000 tons, and from January to September, cumulative peanut oil imports were 291,000 tons, a 47% increase compared to last year [28]. Group 6: Chapter 3 - Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides various data charts, including peanut prices, oil mill operating rates, inventories, pressing profits, basis, spreads, and import/export data, to track the weekly changes in the peanut market [8][12][16]