高库存压力加大，甲醇跌势加速

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The high inventory pressure on methanol is increasing, and its downward trend is accelerating. The coal price has rebounded continuously during the coal demand peak season, with the domestic supply remaining ample. The international methanol plant operating rate has increased, and imports have recovered. The downstream demand is stable, but the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the context of high inventory, methanol is expected to continue its downward trend [4]. - Trading strategies include holding short positions for unilateral trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Raw material coal: As of November 14, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions are 71% and 44% respectively. The coal mines have resumed production, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. The demand is strong, and the pit - mouth price has been rising continuously [4]. - Supply side: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable, with the domestic supply being continuously abundant [4]. - Import side: The US dollar price is dropping rapidly, and the import premium has widened. All Iranian plants are operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The European and American markets have rebounded slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 540,000 tons in November, and the concessionary tender transactions are still poor, with a large amount of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are operating at partial loads. The overall downstream demand is stable [4]. - Inventory side: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range. However, with the increase in imports and a slight decline in MTO operating rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of November 13, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 76.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.83 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load is 68.74%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From November 1 to November 7, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output is 1,050,609 tons, an increase of 19,750 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.02%, a 1.35% increase [5]. - Supply - Import: As of November 12, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 451,800 tons [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 83.65%, a 0.68 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 90.24%, and the olefin industry operating rate continues to decline [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde are 5.33% (a 1.11% month - on - month decrease), 67.13%, and 41.42% respectively. The overall capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde has decreased compared to last week [5]. - Demand - Direct sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 88,800 tons, a 271.55% increase from the previous statistical date [5]. - Inventory - Enterprises: The inventory of production enterprises is 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 245,400 tons, a 10.99% increase from the previous period [5]. - Inventory - Ports: As of November 12, 2025, the total port inventory is 1,543,600 tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - Valuation: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 322 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has remained stable [5]. - Spot prices: The price in Taicang is 2040 yuan/ton (- 60), and in the northern line is 1980 yuan/ton (- 10) [8].