粕类周报：报告数据预期偏利多，内外盘走势震荡偏强-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 3200 price level for the m2601 contract. Abroad, the US government shutdown continues, and the market focuses on the return of US soybean orders due to the implementation of China - US policy agreements. Domestically, the supply of near - month soybeans and soybean meal is expected to be relatively sufficient, but the supply pressure will weaken as imports decline. The cost of imports supports the price of soybean meal. [3] - For rapeseed meal, the upside space is limited, with resistance at the 2500 price level for the RM601 contract. Globally, the rapeseed supply - demand pattern in the 2025/26 year is loose, suppressing the price of rapeseed. In China, the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, and the downstream aquaculture is in the off - season. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is low, which is not conducive to the substitution of rapeseed meal. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Foreign Supply and Demand 3.1.1 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The USDA report is expected to show a potential downward adjustment in US soybean yield in the 2025/26 year, which may reduce the ending inventory. The price of US soybeans has been oscillating at a high level, ranging from 1100 - 1160 cents per bushel. The export demand and domestic crushing demand need to be further observed. The current cost of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward pressure on prices remains. [16][17] 3.1.2 South American Soybean Supply and Demand - Brazilian soybean sowing is more than half - completed, and Argentine sowing has started. The sowing progress in Brazil is behind last year due to local precipitation, but it is expected to continue to advance. The Chinese procurement supports the Brazilian soybean premium to oscillate. The market will gradually focus on the weather in South America in the next two months. [26][27] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Supply and Demand - In the 2025/26 year, the global rapeseed production is expected to increase by 5.23 million tons, with an increase of 6.11%. The consumption demand increases by 2.06%. The international rapeseed trade volume is expected to decline due to trade policies. The global rapeseed inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio continue to increase. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade policies. [53] 3.2 CFTC Positions - The report provides data on CBOT soybean and soybean meal non - commercial long and short positions, total positions, and non - commercial net long positions and their proportions, which can reflect the market sentiment and expectations of investors. [42][44][46] 3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Domestic Import Situation - In October 2025, China imported 3.932 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 3.387 million tons from September. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 95.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The supply of soybean meal in the near - term is loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. However, the increase in import costs supports the price of soybean meal. [64] 3.3.2 Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing - Operating Rate - As of the week of November 7, the actual soybean crushing volume of 125 domestic oil mills was 1.8057 million tons, with an operating rate of 49.67%. It is expected to increase to 2.1579 million tons and 59.36% respectively in the 46th week. The rapeseed pressing in coastal areas has basically stagnated. [86] 3.3.3 Import Cost and Pressing Profit - The import cost of soybeans has increased, mainly due to the significant increase in CBOT soybean prices. The import cost of rapeseed from Canada and the pressing profit are also provided in the report. [93][100] 3.3.4 Inventory - As of the week of November 7, the soybean inventory of 125 domestic oil mills increased by 511,600 tons to 7.6195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.97%. The soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased. The rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory continued to decline. [101] 3.3.5 Downstream Demand - As of November 13, the total trading volume of soybean meal in China was 606,340 tons, a week - on - week increase. The trading volume in the spot and forward - basis markets has improved. The total提货 volume of soybean meal decreased slightly. The downstream aquaculture is in the off - season, and the livestock and poultry breeding profit situation is also provided in the report. [119] 3.3.6 Basis and Spread - The report provides data on the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including the basis of different contracts and regions, as well as the spread between different contracts. [13][115]