2025年10月经济数据点评兼债市观点：主要指标均有所回落-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main economic indicators in October 2025 showed a decline, including industrial production, fixed - asset investment, and social consumption [1][2]. - In the bond market, investors should gradually become more optimistic, with a short - to - long duration strategy for interest - rate bonds and a focus on structural opportunities for convertible bonds [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Event - On November 14, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for October 2025, including industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social consumption data [1][6]. 3.2 Economic Data Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Production - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from September. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.17%, the lowest of the year and lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][6]. - The decline in the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value was mainly due to the decrease in the mining and manufacturing sectors, while the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased [7]. 3.2.2 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 1.7%, continuing the downward trend. The month - on - month growth rate in October was - 1.62%, with an expanding decline [2][14]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment all decreased. Real estate investment remained weak, and manufacturing and infrastructure investment weakened from their high levels at the beginning of the year [18]. 3.2.3 Social Consumption - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumption was 2.9%, slightly lower than the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.16%, turning positive but weaker than the seasonal average [2][21]. - Among consumer goods, the year - on - year growth rate of essential consumption increased. Among optional consumption, the decline in automobile and home appliance consumption was significant, while optional consumption such as gold, silver, and jewelry, and communication equipment still performed well. The year - on - year growth rate of catering consumption increased significantly [21]. 3.3 Bond Market View 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of treasury bonds has shown a significant divergence. The short - end yield fluctuated little, while the long - end yield first increased and then decreased. By November 13, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields had decreased by 9bp and 13bp respectively from their previous highs [3][27]. - Given the current loose liquidity, investors should be more optimistic about the bond market. The duration selection can be from short to long, and the view that the fluctuation center of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is 1.7% is maintained [3][28]. 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds - As of November 13, 2025, the increase and decrease of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was + 19.3%, and that of the CSI All - Index was + 25.3%. The convertible bond market underperformed the equity market. Since late October, the convertible bond market has seen a new round of growth [3][36]. - In the context of the slow - bull expectation of the equity market and the difficult - to - change pattern of strong demand over supply in the convertible bond market, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets in the long run, and more attention should be paid to the structure [36].