生猪鸡蛋周报：生猪供给持续充足，鸡蛋需求有所走弱-20251114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Both the hog and egg markets are in a downward - trending phase, and their price centers are expected to decline in the future [2][3]. - For hogs, due to high levels of breeding sows, increased production performance, and high supply pressure in the second half of 2025, along with limited demand boost from economic slowdown and changing consumer preferences, the rebound space for hog prices is limited. Policy disturbances, sufficient supply, and weak demand acceptance lead to weak market sentiment. Short - term hog prices may be weak, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [3]. - For eggs, with the inventory of laying hens at a high level year - on - year, continuous supply pressure, and limited demand fluctuations affected by the macro - economy and consumer preferences, the egg price is expected to remain low. The 01 contract is in the demand peak season, but high supply may lead to insufficient demand acceptance. The overall advice is to short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Hog Section - Supply: - Pork supply depends on the number of hog slaughter and slaughter weight. Since the import accounts for less than 5%, domestic production is the main source. The number of hog slaughter is determined by production capacity, and weight shows seasonal changes within the year. The supply will remain high until the first half of 2026, and attention should be paid to the impact of the slaughter rhythm on short - term supply [9][10]. - The overall slaughter weight is rising as the weather gets colder, and the entry of second - fattening hogs decreases. It is expected to continue rising as the weather further cools and the price difference between fat and standard hogs becomes more obvious [11]. - Demand: - In the long - term, pork consumption is related to income, population, and consumption habits; in the medium - term, it has obvious seasonality; in the short - term, it changes with festivals and price fluctuations. Currently, as the weather gets colder, the downstream demand is in the peak season, and the slaughter volume is slowly increasing. Second - fattening and frozen - product storage form short - term demand, but recently, the second - fattening entry is cautious, and the willingness to slaughter en masse is low [23]. - Cost and Profit: - As of November 13, the self - breeding and self - raising model's cost is 12.41 yuan/kg, and the cost of purchasing piglets is 13.99 yuan/kg. The breeding industry is in a loss, and the production capacity reduction is slow. Breeders are pessimistic about the future, mainly replacing sows, and increasing the elimination of high - parity sows [36][37]. - Policy: - The state uses reserve purchases and sales to regulate market supply and demand and stabilize the hog market. Currently, the market is in the second - level early - warning range of excessive price decline, and the third batch of central pork reserve purchases will be launched [44]. - Spreads and Basis: - A series of data on hog spreads and basis are provided, including the basis of different contracts in Henan and various inter - contract spreads, with daily - updated data [52][61][67]. 3.2 Egg Section - Supply: - Egg supply is determined by the inventory of laying hens and the egg - laying rate. Since the beginning of 2025, the enthusiasm for replenishment has weakened, and the new production in the fourth quarter will decline. At the same time, the number of culled hens has increased due to low egg prices. Although the inventory of laying hens may decline in the fourth quarter, it will still be at a high level year - on - year, and the egg supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the culling situation [73]. - Recently, replenishment has been weak, the culling sentiment has declined, the inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is still abundant. The feed cost has rebounded slightly, and the overall breeding cost is around 3.2 - 3.3 yuan/jin [74][75]. - Demand: - In the long - term, egg consumption is related to population, economy, and consumer preferences, showing a steady growth trend. In the medium - and short - term, it has obvious seasonality, with peaks before traditional festivals. Currently, the demand is in the off - season, and after the end of e - commerce promotions, the demand boost is not obvious, but high vegetable prices still provide some support [85]. - Spreads and Basis: - Data on egg spreads and basis are provided, including inter - contract spreads and the basis of different contracts in Hebei, with daily - updated data [100].