Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 14, 2025, the domestic futures market shows a mixed performance. Some commodities like apples and soybeans have risen, while others such as methanol and glass have declined. Different commodities face various supply - demand situations, influenced by factors such as production, consumption, policies, and geopolitical events. Most commodities are expected to show weak and volatile trends due to factors like supply - demand imbalances, uncertain policies, and market sentiment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - Copper: Supply is affected by smelter maintenance and policy - related procurement issues, with a decrease in the overall smelter operating rate. Demand is weak, with a decline in downstream copper product operating rates and an increase in inventory. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of the December interest - rate cut in the US, and the domestic fundamentals are weak, but the tight copper ore supply provides some support [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price has increased slightly. Supply shows growth, with an increase in domestic production and a decrease in imports from Chile. Demand is strong, driven by the energy - storage battery market. The supply - demand situation is tight, and the market is expected to remain strong after a correction [10]. - Aluminum: No relevant information provided. - Nickel: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. - Tin: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities [5]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price. Demand has entered the off - season, and the overall inventory is increasing. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and the situation of Russian oil exports needs to be monitored. The market is expected to be in a supply - surplus situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - Bitumen: Supply has decreased, with a decline in the operating rate and production volume. Demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather, and it is expected to weaken further. The supply - surplus situation of crude oil has led to a decline in prices, and the bitumen futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. Chemicals - Methanol: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of declining commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. - Polypropylene (PP): The downstream operating rate is low, and the production proportion of standard products has decreased. Supply has increased with new capacity and some maintenance. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The market lacks large - scale procurement, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [15][16]. - Plastic: The operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate is also low. Supply has increased with new capacity. The cost is affected by the supply - surplus situation of crude oil. The demand in the peak season is not as expected, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [17]. - PVC: The supply operating rate has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has also declined slightly. The export situation is affected by policies, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is in the adjustment stage, and the price is expected to be in a state of shock adjustment [19]. Agricultural Products - Apples: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities [5]. - Soybeans: No detailed analysis provided, only mentioned in the list of rising commodities and as a contract with significant capital inflow [5][6]. Others - Coking Coal: The price has increased slightly. Supply has increased with the recovery of Mongolian coal imports and domestic production. The inventory situation varies among different sectors. The demand is affected by the weakening profitability of steel mills, and the market is expected to weaken [20][21]. - Urea: The price has remained stable with a slight decline. Supply has increased with new production capacity. The demand is affected by environmental inspections and the off - season of agricultural demand. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is expected to be in a short - term strong adjustment [22]. - Stock Index Futures: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have all declined [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The 2 - year contract has declined slightly, the 5 - year and 10 - year contracts have remained flat, and the 30 - year contract has increased slightly [6].
每日核心期货品种分析-20251114
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-11-14 12:36