原油日报：原油震荡上行-20251114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the crude oil market will remain in a supply - surplus situation, with the price expected to experience weak and volatile fluctuations. The end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and rising exports from the Middle East all contribute to the supply - surplus situation. The adjustment by OPEC from a shortage to a surplus in Q3 2025 and the IEA's prediction of slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 further solidify this view [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, with a suspension of production increases in Q1 2026. Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of crude oil to Asia in December. The end of the demand peak season, an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and a record - high US crude oil production all add to the supply pressure. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies, potential changes in India's oil imports, and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela also impact the market. The market is concerned about weakening demand due to factors like the decline in the US ISM manufacturing index [1]. - The OPEC adjusted the global oil situation from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects slower demand growth and increased supply in Q4 [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 0.66% to 457.4 yuan/ton, with a low of 450.9 yuan/ton and a high of 462.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 7,385 to 11,067 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA predicts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026. It also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC adjusted the Q3 2025 global oil situation from shortage to surplus and the 2026 situation from a shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 million barrels per day and 1.38 million barrels per day respectively. IEA raised the global crude oil supply and demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [3]. - As of the week of November 7, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased less than expected. OPEC's September production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day, while its October production increased mainly due to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ production decreased in October compared to September. US crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day in the week of November 7 [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.38%. Gasoline and diesel weekly demand increased, driving a 2.03% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].