PP日报：震荡运行-20251114

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Cost increases and the Double Eleven peak season have pushed up PP prices, but the overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, so PP is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of the standard drawing grade dropped to around 23% [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has a limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 by OPEC [1]. - The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, so the boost to the market is limited [1]. - There is no actual anti - involution policy implemented in the PP industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,468 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,518 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,474 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.40%. The open interest decreased by 6,371 lots to 622,052 lots [2]. - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions were stable. The drawing grade was reported at 6,240 - 6,580 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 14, some maintenance devices such as the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83%, at a moderately low level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The开工 rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawing grade, decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%, and orders decreased slightly compared to the previous period and were slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories are being depleted normally and are currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton week - on - week [4].