塑料日报：震荡上行-20251114

报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]