PVC日报：震荡上行-20251114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report predicts that PVC will experience volatile consolidation in the near term. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC boosts market confidence and social inventory decreases slightly, factors such as the upcoming implementation of India's anti - dumping tax, high futures warehouse receipts, and weak cost support due to the end of maintenance by some production enterprises will still put pressure on PVC [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC production start - up rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC start - up rate has started to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India, but the upcoming implementation of anti - dumping tax has led traders to adopt a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a week - on - week decline in export orders last week. Social inventory decreased slightly this week but remains high, and inventory pressure is still large. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time for improvement [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PVC2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 4,580 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,635 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,608 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.72%. The position volume decreased by 44,024 lots to 1,348,369 lots [2]. - Basis: On November 14, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,535 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,608 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 73 yuan/ton, weakening by 2 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Some devices such as Tianjin LG and Henan Lianchuang entered maintenance, causing the PVC production start - up rate to decrease by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51% week - on - week. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year production line that started mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year production line expected to be in stable production by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year production line that was put into operation in early September and is currently approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang's and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year production lines operating at low loads after trial runs [4]. - Demand: The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of November 9, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline by 32.15% week - on - week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 13, PVC social inventory decreased by 1.27% week - on - week to 1.0283 million tons, 23.76% higher than the same period last year. Social inventory decreased slightly but remains high [6].