XJJW(SH:600888) Orient Securities·2025-11-14 13:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 8.91 CNY, based on a 11X PE valuation for 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a stabilization in coal prices in Xinjiang and an increase in profits from its alumina projects, which are projected to ramp up production [2][8]. - Adjustments to the company's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are made, with new estimates of 0.57 CNY, 0.81 CNY, and 1.04 CNY respectively [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its aluminum electronic materials supply chain, with significant progress in its alumina project expected to contribute positively to profits starting in 2026 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 6,535 million CNY in 2023 to 15,621 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline from 1,561 million CNY in 2023 to 803 million CNY in 2025, before rebounding to 1,466 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - The company's gross margin is forecasted to fluctuate, with a decrease to 10.8% in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery to 13.0% by 2027 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 15.4 for 2025, decreasing to 8.4 by 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation relative to peers [4][9]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 1.3 in 2023 to 0.9 in 2027, suggesting improving asset efficiency over time [4][9].